ESPN’s Season Simulation Has Bombshell for Vikings
Each year, ESPN simulates the upcoming regular season with 10,000 pulls of the lever and then publishes the results.
ESPN’s latest NFL season simulation delivered a bombshell for the Vikings, projecting a surprising playoff path that would be quite fantastic.
The site goes out of its way to claim the simulation is not a prediction by the company or by any ESPN writer.
So, whatever it is, the Minnesota Vikings were picked by ESPN’s simulation machine to reach the NFC Championship this season.
ESPN Simulation Machine Plops Vikings in NFC Title Game
Vikings fans saw the results and said, “Yes, please.”
Vikings Picked to Reach … the NFC Championship
Lo and behold, Seth Walder’s simulation chose Minnesota to topple the Dallas Cowboys in the Wildcard Round, the Arizona Cardinals in the Divisional, and lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship.
He wrote, “The Bucs entered the playoffs with low expectations but shocked No. 2-seeded Detroit 27-24 in the wild-card round, keyed by a Yaya Diaby sack and a deflection of a Jared Goff pass that was intercepted. Tampa Bay then surprised the top-seeded Rams 27-22 in the divisional round thanks to a clinical Mayfield performance.”
“Todd Bowles’ defense got the job done in the NFC Championship Game, confusing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and winning 28-13. Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving had big days, and the Bucs were Super Bowl bound — where they met the Bills.”
Walder eventually clarifies that the Bills take down the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LX.
NFCC from Wildcard Is Quite Impressive
The Vikings haven’t won two playoff games in the same season in about 40 years. When they’ve boasted fantastic teams (1998, 2009, 2017), the purple team has owned a first-round bye, won the next game, and then lost in the NFC title game.
Minnesota, therefore, is wildly overdue to win two playoff games in the same tournament. By any means necessary.
Walder’s sim gets the franchise off that schneid.
Kevin O’Connell Needs a Playoff Win
Meanwhile, the Vikings head coach may have a 100% approval rating among fans, but he has not won a playoff game since taking over the organization in 2022.
In fact, both playoff losses on O’Connell’s watch were fairly gruesome. Minnesota lost to the Daniel Jones-led New York Giants — at home — in 2022 and then showcased a lifeless effort eight months ago in a loss on the road to the Los Angeles Rams.
The reigning NFL Coach of the Year needs a playoff dub; the ESPN sim provides two.
A Sweet Way to Kickoff the J.J. McCarthy Era
Minnesota will roll with J.J. McCarthy this season after choosing him in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. The 22-year-old is ready for the bright lights of the QB1 job, and fans are hungry for his ascent, especially after last year’s QB1 Sam Darnold utterly flamed out when it mattered the most.
While losing in the NFC Championship would cause heartache — what else is new for the Vikings? — McCarthy taking his team there in Year No. 1 would be quite splendid and generate the utmost excitement for 2026 and beyond.
ESPN Sim Also Claimed Eagles, Chiefs Would Miss Playoffs
Perhaps the beefiest surprise from Walder’s sim machine — again, he claimed it’s not a prediction, but a simulation or something strange in between — is the exclusion of the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs from the postseason.
Walder explained, “Eleven months after the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams cleaned out their lockers following Week 18. Neither managed to make it back to the playoffs, easily the shocker of the 2025 campaign in this simulation. The Eagles were actually done before the final week.”
“Thought to be infallible heading into the season, the Eagles were 5-4 after Week 10 — a game behind the Cowboys but still seemingly in control of their postseason destiny. But that turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in pure panic mode. In the end, the Eagles couldn’t make up the gap, falling short in the NFC East and wild-card battle.”
Predicting (posting a simulation?) the Eagles and Chiefs to miss the playoffs is about as bold as it gets.
“The Chiefs’ collapse was much more startling. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day to improve to 9-7. It needed to only to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th straight playoff spot. But Patrick Mahomes’ clutch gene was nowhere to be found as the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos — who won their Week 18 game — to win the division on a tiebreaker,” Walder added.
“No wild-card bid for the Chiefs either. The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers and Packers all missed the postseason, too.”
Walder also clarified about this sim: “We’re detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections.”
“To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota’s 4-13 record in last year’s simulation — please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 — what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025.”
Regardless, the simulation smiled on the Vikings.
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