ESPN Officially Predicts Sam Darnold’s Contract Price
Will he stay, or will he go? That’s the top question regarding Sam Darnold this offseason, a quarterback who led the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-3 record in the regular season and an abrupt flop in the postseason.
ESPN Officially Predicts Sam Darnold’s Contract Price
Most Vikings fans ultimately believe that Darnold will leave the organization via free agency or franchise tag-and-trade, mainly because Minnesota may be unable to afford Darnold’s asking price.
And thanks to ESPN, Darnold’s next contract might have some clarity per dollars and cents. ESPN’s Dan Graziano forecasted Darnold’s eventual soon-to-be deal late last week: “Prediction: Three years, $120 million, $75 million guaranteed — which would tie for 15th among quarterbacks in average annual value.”
Graziano did not formally predict Darnold’s next team in the publication, but he did mention some theoretical landing spots.
“The Vikings have talked about bringing Darnold back, even with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings to take over as the long-term starter at some point (McCarthy first has to recover from his season-ending knee injury.) They could franchise-tag him (roughly $40 million) with the intent of keeping him or possibly trading him, but odds are the market is going to offer Darnold more than Minnesota can afford,” he wrote. “The Raiders, Giants, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Titans and Saints are among the teams that either will or could find themselves looking for a new quarterback this offseason.”
Before floundering in Minnesota’s final two games of the 2024 campaign, Darnold supplied MVP stats, bearing 35 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions with 4,319 passing yards. Meanwhile, the purple franchise has rookie J.J. McCarthy waiting to take over as QB1; it’s just a matter of when on McCarthy, who tore his meniscus last August and missed the entire year.
“The Vikings can pay receiver Justin Jefferson $35 million per year in part because it’s anticipating operating on McCarthy’s rookie deal. And in the end, they probably end up letting Darnold hit the market, where he should be able to command a deal in line with the three-year, $100 million deal that Baker Mayfield got from the Buccaneers a year ago — though it would be adjusted upward based on inflation and market demand,” Graziano concluded about Darnold’s impending free agency.
Darnold chatted with SiriusXM Radio last week and sounded like a player who will test free agency. “I’ve put a little bit of thought into it. I’m not going to share anything about, kind of, what I’ve been thinking or, obviously, the conversations I’ve had behind closed doors,” Darnold said.
“There’s obviously, a lot that’s going to happen still, even after the Super Bowl. So, I’m just going to continue to talk to my agent and figure things out from there.”
Most players on their way back to their previous employer might’ve said something like, “I hope to return to the Vikings.” Darnold did not say that.
So, if one trusts ESPN, Darnold is on the cusp of signing a deal worth $40 million annually, a price that likely lands outside the Vikings’ budget.
NFL free agency is five weeks away.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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