Dustin Baker’s 2024 NFL Playoff Predictions
With six games this weekend, the NFL playoffs begin, highlighted by the Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for a Super Bowl three-peat. No team has ever won a Super Bowl thrice consecutively.
The Minnesota Vikings, too, will be a part of the fun this year, taking on the Los Angeles Rams in the week’s final contest. It’s Rams-Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Dustin Baker’s 2024 NFL Playoff Predictions
This year’s tournament is totally up in the air, with most sportsbooks forecasting a Kansas City Chiefs + Detroit Lions Super Bowl.
But here’s a slightly different take.
AFC
Wildcard Round
(2) Buffalo Bills over (7) Denver Broncos
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers over (3) Baltimore Ravens
(5) Los Angeles Chargers over (4) Houston Texans
The Bills defeat the Broncos because the Broncos aren’t ready to make a run. Pittsburgh pulls off a stunner because this classic rivalry just does stuff like that. And the Texans are cold at the worst possible time.
Divisional Round
(2) Buffalo Bills over (5) Los Angeles Chargers
(1) Kansas City Chiefs over (6) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers don’t feel like a formidable cold-weather team, so upsetting the Bills is off the table. Then, the Steelers get utterly smoked at Arrowhead Stadium.
AFC Championship
(1) Kansas City Chiefs over (2) Buffalo Bills
If this game occurred in Buffalo, there’d be a temptation to pick the Bills. However, the Chiefs dispelled all doubters in 2023 after a blah regular season. You can’t pick against them and feel good about it.
NFC
Wildcard Round
(2) Philadelphia Eagles over (7) Green Bay Packers
(3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers over (6) Washington Commanders
(5) Minnesota Vikings over (4) Los Angeles Rams
Some will pick the Packers because of their performance in Round 1 last year, but that won’t translate to this brand of playoffs. The Commanders, like the Broncos above, are at least a year away from winning a playoff game. Minnesota is more consistent and balanced than Los Angeles.
Divisional Round
(1) Detroit Lions over (5) Minnesota Vikings
(2) Philadelphia Eagles over (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Lions defeat Minnesota again because Jahmyr Gibbs slices and dices — just like Week 18. Philadelphia survives a scrappy Tampa Bay club that could make this Divisional Round contest rather tight.
NFC Championship
(2) Philadelphia Eagles over (1) Detroit Lions
The Eagles possess equal or better offensive and defensive trenches than the Lions, especially on defense. They’re also healthier. In a heartbreaker, Detroit loses at home in the NFC title game.
Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs over Philadelphia Eagles, 34-27
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Another Super Bowl rematch, the Chiefs will win their fourth Lombardi Trophy and third in a row. They’re too damn dynastic. It also helps that the Cincinnati Bengals aren’t in the dance to knock off Kansas City. The Bengals are the kryptonite.
Next season, though, Buffalo will finally break through after gaining homefield advantage and a home AFC Championship.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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