Doomsday Scenario Suddenly Emerges for Vikings Draft Pick Situation

Remember not long ago when the Minnesota Vikings appeared to be on tap for a bevy of extra draft picks thanks to the compensatory process? That theory is on life support due to a [bad] perfect storm.
All of a sudden, the Vikings’ once-promising compensatory draft pick situation looks grim, with a perfect storm brewing to ruin everything.
The tide could still turn and be kind to Minnesota, but for now, the once-lofty compensatory draft pick outlook has turned sour.
Vikings Compensatory Pick Hopes Fade for 2026
They’ll still get one important pick, but the “extras” could be toast.

Comp Pick Expert Tells All about Vikings’ Current Plight
The compensatory draft pick master, Nick Korte at OverTheCap.com, used the X app this week to revise Minnesota’s lay of land via compensatory picks.
He tweeted, “Blake Cashman’s return took snaps away not from Eric Wilson, but Ivan Pace Jr. That combined with Trent Sherfield only getting 11% of the offensive snaps for the Broncos inches the Vikings closer to their worst case 2026 compensatory pick scenario.”
Here’s the graphic:

Eric Wilson Turns into a Starter
So, what happened? The most glaring disruption is obvious — linebacker Eric Wilson has shapeshifted into a starter. Wilson took over for Blake Cashman when Cashman injured his hamstring in Week 1, and he played so well that when Cashman healed and returned in Week 7, defensive coordinator Brian Flores turned around and benched fellow linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. in favor of Wilson.
It’s unclear if Pace Jr. will remain on the bench, but so long as Wilson remains a starter or accumulates a starter’s snap count, he will cancel the would-be comp pick for Daniel Jones’ free agent departure.
It’s bittersweet. Wilson playing a starter’s level is wonderful news for the defense — and a bad development for the comp pick situation.
Trent Sherfield Out in Denver a Non-Factor
The other damning tidbit? His name is Trent Sherfield, who plays for the Denver Broncos and spent 2024 in Minnesota.
Sherfield is on pace to play about 300 offensive snaps, and for Minnesota to nibble at an extra comp pick, Sherfield’s workload would have to tip the scale at approximately double the current pace.
That’s just not happening, and there’s no reason to believe that Sean Payton will suddenly begin using Sherfield as a WR3 on Sundays.
The short way to think about it is that the outgoing free agents from the 2025 class are balancing the incoming Vikings newcomers per snap count. Wilson is the major wildcard; most fans didn’t jot him down as a starter in August.
Just the Darnold Comp Pick — Like Last Year with Kirk Cousins
Thankfully — like last year with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta — the 3rd-Round comp pick for Sam Darnold’s departure is basically untouchable. So long as Darnold isn’t suddenly benched or injured, Minnesota is staring at a 3rd-Rounder for Darnold’s free-agent decision in March to become a Seattle Seahawk.
And not for nothing, Darnold is performing at a high level, on pace for over 4,000 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
If he doesn’t vaporize in the postseason, like he did in Minnesota, his career reclamation story might stick — and Minnesota will pluck a 3rd-Rounder from April’s draft because of it.
More on the Comp Picks
A few weeks ago, A to Z Sports‘ Tyler Forness noted on the process, “In basic terms, it’s a formula that adds your ranking of your average annual value, adding in the percentage of snaps you play on offense or defense, with any eligible awards you win.”
“The top 689 players qualify for the formula, and, after starting the last four games, inside linebacker Eric Wilson now qualifies for the formula, meaning that selection for Cam Robinson is cancelled out. Wilson only has a contract worth $2.6 million, which is 1,254th in the NFL, but playing 76.4% of the snaps through five weeks is a significant portion of the snaps. That is mainly due to Cashman missing time.”

Minnesota used the comp pick last year from Cousins’ exit to draft wide receiver Tai Felton.
“As long as Cashman returns relatively quickly, that pick will come back. Right now, the pick for Robinson is projected as a sixth-round pick due to his barely playing in the last four games. However, that will shoot up once he takes over at left tackle. He could end up starting the rest of the season and shoot that pick up as high as a fourth-round pick,” Forness added.
“With 13 weeks left in the NFL season, nothing is set in stone, but it’s noteworthy that this could change how many NFL Draft picks the Vikings have.”
Forness’ analysis did not anticipate Pace Jr. hitting the bench.
The full compensatory load will be announced in early March.
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