Nine months ago, the Minnesota Vikings selected J.J. McCarthy from the University of Michigan in the 1st Round of the 2024 NFL Draft to become the franchise’s quarterback of the future.
Darnold or McCarthy? NFL Insider Has a Declaration.
Then, McCarthy tore his meniscus during his first-ever preseason game, ending his rookie campaign. Sam Darnold took over as the Vikings’ QB1 and led the team to a 14-win campaign before faceplanting in the postseason.
The perfect storm created “Darnold or McCarthy” debates among the team’s fans, and Minnesota will make a decision this offseason to start McCarthy this September, retain Darnold on a hefty contract, let Darnold depart via free agency, or to franchise tag-and-trade the 27-year-old.
And according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz, the choice is fairly clear: Minnesota will hand the baton to McCarthy, sticking to the original plan. “I believe Sam Darnold will still draw real interest this offseason — and a little competition can quickly drive up his price — but I have a hard time seeing him back in Minnesota. J.J. McCarthy is the future,” Schultz tweeted late last week.
Money is the hinge for Darnold and the Vikings, most believe. Spotrac, a website tracking the salary cap and NFL players’ value, claims Darnold will fetch a contract worth $160 million over four years. The Vikings likely don’t have that cash lying around with McCarthy present on the depth chart at an affordable rate for the next four seasons. Or, if Minnesota met Darnold’s high, would-be asking price, it would have few funds left for free agents in the coming offseasons.
Darnold played on a one-year, $10 million deal in 2024. His 36 total touchdowns increased his value substantially, even if his Pro Bowl-caliber performance vanished in Week 18 and the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Schultz’s McCarthy theory has detractors. Some believe the 22-year-old could be traded this offseason, while the Vikings, in theory, kept Darnold. A week and a half ago, before Darnold’s final debacle, a playoff loss against the Los Angeles Rams, The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt mentioned McCarthy as a possible QB solution for the New York Jets. New York is currently overhauling its front office and coaching staff, and McCarthy could evidently be the fix, says Rosenblatt.
“The most intriguing potential addition: J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings picked him 10th overall last spring, then McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in August, allowing Darnold to break out. If the Vikings retain Darnold and commit to him long-term, McCarthy might become available,” he explained.
Others have theoretically linked McCarthy to quarterback-needy teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants.
The Darnold or McCarthy choice will come into plain view with a verdict sometime in February or March. If Minnesota doesn’t re-sign Darnold — Schultz doesn’t see it happening — the Vikings could roll with Daniel Jones at QB2, who spent the season’s final six weeks on Minnesota’s practice squad.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.