All eyes have turned to the Minnesota Vikings’ impending quarterback decision.
4 Ways the Vikings QB Drama Could Play Out
The candidates? Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy.
All Vikings fans have an opinion, with most leaning toward McCarthy after Darnold flamed out of the Vikings’ final two games of 2024. Minnesota was a true one-and-done in the playoffs after an illustrious 14-3 season.
So, to set the table, these are Minnesota’s four quarterback options in 2025, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = most likely to occur).
4. Sam Darnold at QB1 — J.J. McCarthy Traded
The least likely option — but one that national media chirps about — Minnesota would trade McCarthy and keep Darnold for the long haul, probably on a deal for three years and $120 million (or something similar). They would’ve seen enough from Darnold to change horses altogether, likely sending McCarthy to a team like the New York Giants or Las Vegas Raiders.
This won’t happen, but it must be included just in case.
3. J.J. McCarthy at QB1 — Sam Darnold Traded on Franchise Tag
In all likelihood, McCarthy is Minnesota’s future at QB1, but there’s a school of thought that suggests Darnold played way too damn well just let him leave in free agency for nothing.
This option would allow Minnesota to franchise-tag-and-trade Darnold, probably working with him to determine his chosen destination.
The Vikings could gain a draft pick(s), start McCarthy in 2025, and likely retain Daniel Jones as QB2.
Interestingly, the franchise tag window opens on Tuesday. If Minnesota chooses this method, things could heat up this week.
2. Prolonged QB1 Mystery — Darnold Back on Team-Friendly Deal
Remember the summer of 2024? It could happen all over again.
The Vikings find a way to thread the needle by having it both ways, hedging the bet against McCarthy’s meniscus injury recovery while keeping Darnold for less than the rumored $35-$45 million asking price. Of course, Minnesota could just pay $40 million for Darnold outright via the franchise tag, and that’d be that.
Yet, if Minnesota spends $40 million on Darnold, its budget for other free agents would nosedive.
This is included because there’s a chance that the Vikings play it ultra-safe … “too many” good quarterbacks.
1. J.J. McCarthy QB1 — Sam Darnold Leaves in Free Agency
General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah drafted McCarthy for a reason — to be the Vikings’ quarterback of the future and stabilize the position. Minnesota hasn’t encountered that from a rookie since Daunte Culpepper — 25 years ago.
The most likely option is for the franchise to commit to McCarthy, rally around him, and let Darnold achieve his big payday elsewhere.
Developing McCarthy would allow Minnesota a four-year window for Super Bowl contention — if McCarthy’s the real deal — provisioning the young passer with oodles of free-agent talent through the end of 2028.
Daniel Jones can serve as the “2023 Sam Darnold” option, sticking around on an affordable deal as QB2.
McCarthy became the most likely option — beyond the shadow of a doubt — the moment Minnesota lost to the Rams in the playoffs. Otherwise, it would have to run it back with Darnold and hope his postseason performance will improve next time — a big gamble that might take too much time, especially with McCarthy waiting to take over.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.