These 2 Factors Will Make or Break the 2025 Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings begin their regular season in about six weeks, taking on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 8th.
The 2025 Vikings season may come down to just two key factors, believe it or not. If these items don’t go right, a playoff run could be off the table entirely.
The team is expected to win eight or nine games in 2025, following a 14-win season last year with Sam Darnold at the helm. Obviously, fans hope for more wins than eight or nine, but Vegas envisions a 9-8 and 8-9 finish.
And if Minnesota effectuates the “over” this season, two factors may make or break the campaign. They’re pretty straightforward.
The Vikings Need 2 Things to Go Really Right in 2025
J.J. McCarthy and the running backs are basically gatekeepers.
A Once-and-For-All Fix to the Rushing Offense
The rushing offense is in the hands of four key personalities or groups: Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, the Vikings’ offensive line, and head coach Kevin O’Connell — his playcalling.
Minnesota will not contend for a Super Bowl — in a serious manner, anyway — until it can run the football effectively. Here’s the statistical skinny:
Vikings Rushing EPA,
under Kevin O’Connell
2022: 29th
2023: 25th
2024: 22nd
That isn’t good. It just isn’t. In fairness to O’Connell, the Vikings have improved every step of the way. The progression, however, is a series of baby steps. That 22nd ranking from 2024 must climb into the Top 12 or Top 15. Super Bowl-contending teams don’t struggle to run the ball. Ask the Philadelphia Eagles.
Even the Kansas City Chiefs’ dynastic run has featured a competent rushing offense. For example, in 2022, the Chiefs ranked 10th in the NFL per rushing EPA, and Kansas City was not typically known for its running game. When it did, though, it did so efficiently.
That’s where Minnesota must be. O’Connell can stick to his pass-happy ways, but the rushing efficiency must enter the league’s top half. Otherwise, the offense will always be one-dimensional.
Our own Brevan Bane wrote about the rushing attack in May. “Most recently, it seems that the Vikings have made progress on their running game, but the fact of the matter is that Sam Darnold inflated the numbers a little bit; his 212 rushing yards in 2024 was 90 yards more than Kirk Cousins had during the first two years of the KOC-era in 2022 and 2023 combined, where Cousins had 122 rushing yards between the two years.”
“Aaron Jones’ production wasn’t much more than Dalvin Cook had in his declining years with the Vikings, and Ty Chandler and Cam Akers provided a mediocre supporting cast.”
Jones and Mason must coordinate with the offensive line and O’Connell’s playcalling to spark efficiency and consistency. The Vikings must need rushing touchdowns more often, especially in the redzone.
Bane concluded, “Alexander Mattison’s starting opportunity in 2023 was a disaster, as we all know. Now that Jordan Mason is in town to split rushing duties with the aging Jones, and a brand new offensive interior line, the Minnesotan running game is primed to be the best it has ever been since O’Connell got to the Twin Cities, and they’ll need it to help take pressure off of J.J. McCarthy.”
J.J. McCarthy Performing at Least Decently
This one is straightforward: Indeed, McCarthy is basically a rookie in 2025, and he will struggle at times this season. That’s just how it goes. Still, he cannot play horrendously. Doing so would derail a roster otherwise ready for a deep playoff run. The 2025 Vikings’ roster is the most talented and deepest that it has showcased on paper in years.
If McCarthy is competent — think: 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as the bottom floor — his team can reach the postseason and make some noise. Yet, if he were to play like Christian Ponder or Kellen Mond, well, Minnesota would waste a Super Bowl-contending depth chart on a 22-year-old’s inexperience.
McCarthy doesn’t have to be a “game manager.” He doesn’t have to be elite like Patrick Mahomes. The young Wolverine simply can’t play like a moron.
If he avoids that naughty noun, Minnesota can turn heads and battle for first place in the NFC North. The rest of the roster and coaching staff are ready. The defense and offensive playmakers are there.
The Athletic‘s Alec Lewis observed about McCarthy this week at training camp: “If you were putting together a highlight package of McCarthy’s first day, you would likely begin with the pass he completed to receiver Jordan Addison. It happened during a seven-on-seven rep. McCarthy positioned his eyes over the middle of the field, and, once he recognized Addison was streaking alone up the right sideline, he launched.”
“Addison lunged to secure the catch, then trotted into the end zone. Immediately, running back Aaron Jones, who had been watching from behind the play, hollered and met McCarthy on the field to celebrate. While the reaction made sense and the completion warrants a mention, the more notable aspect of McCarthy’s day was his efficiency.”
So far, so good.
It’s all up to McCarthy to determine the purple team’s ceiling in 2025.
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