The Vikings’ Almighty Gamble Going into 2025
The Vikings’ almighty gamble heading into 2025 doesn’t involve J.J. McCarthy, someone who appears to have a bright future. Rather, the major uncertainty rests in the support around the young passer.
More specifically, one wonders about spending major money on players who are coming off injury-shortened seasons. Part of the calculus for Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was to target these players, doing so with the belief that Minnesotan can coax better health out of them while getting a financial discount due to the league’s injury concerns. What happens, though, if the plan falls flat?
The Vikings’ Almighty Gamble
By definition, a gamble is a decision that comes with both upside and downside, risk and reward.
Consider just the simple reality of external players who were signed for major money. Defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave have been among the best at their position for a long time. So, too, has center Ryan Kelly been an excellent lineman for a long time. Teammate Will Fries, though not as established, showed ample promise in 2024, leading to his large payday.
Consider basic details in terms of contracts, ages, and games played in 2024:
| Player | Contract | Age | Games/2024 |
| Jonathan Allen | Three Years & $51M | 30 | 8 |
| Javon Hargrave | Two Years & $30M | 32 | 3 |
| Ryan Kelly | Two Years & $18M | 32 | 10 |
| Will Fries | Five Years & $87.7M | 27 | 5 |
A simple look at the above chart drives home some basic points.
Minnesota wasn’t playing around when it came to beefing up the trenches (but you already knew that). Major money got sent out in an effort to improve both of the offensive line and the defensive line (again, you already knew that). What’s hiding in plain sight, though, is the risk that’s sitting underneath those deals.
Consider, for instance, that Will Fries has just a single top-tier season on his résumé, at least according to PFF. The 86.9 grade he was getting is blistering stuff, a number that would have ranked him at 3rd overall among guards had he held serve for the full season. Do note, though, that the grade is an outlier, the lone time he has gotten so high (his previous best was a modest 61.2 grade).
In contrast, Chiefs RG Trey Smith — who recently landed a beefy deal that squashes Fries’ deal — appears to have a much higher floor since he consistently offers very good grades.
Consider a different angle. Allen and Hargrave have the capacity to supercharge the Vikings’ defense if they both stay on the field and live up to their abilities as pass rushers. Seeing them fall short of these twin goals — availability and excellence — will lead to a bit of a conundrum.
Next season, Allen is carrying a $21,616,666 cap charge while Hargrave is sitting at $21,497,500. Risky, isn’t it, to put so much on older players who were recently hurt? No doubt, there’s upside that’s present, but there’s also a world where things go poorly.
Since Kwesi Adofo-Mensah became the GM, a basic truth has shined through: he isn’t afraid of being bold. He may get things wrong; criticism may arrive. Mr. Adofo-Mensah will still follow through on his convictions, something that speaks to his self-confidence, vision, and leadership.
Safe to say, though, that the GM is moving into a pivotal season, one where a lot hinges on risky decisions that point toward a high ceiling with the possibility of there being a low floor, too.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference, PFF, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
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