The Number-One-With-a-Bullet Sam Darnold Theory
It’s everywhere.
The Number-One-With-a-Bullet Sam Darnold Theory
If one accepts that Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will not return to the franchise in 2025, NFL masses have decided there’s one clear alternative for his 2025 place of employment: the Las Vegas Raiders.
The theory is so widespread that it has entered foregone conclusion territory.
Darnold manufactured a fantastic season with the Vikings in 2024. Well, the first 16 games were magnificent. Darnold later crumbled in the season’s final two games, which just so happened to be the most important. Accordingly, most Vikings fans decided they would rather put their eggs in J.J. McCarthy’s basket for the future.
NFL-themed media took a few weeks, but later agreed. Thereafter, Darnold-to-Raiders became a popular consensus. The 33rd Team‘s Marcus Mosher became the latest this week to subscribe to the theory.
“There is a chance that Darnold wouldn’t want to play in a division as competitive as the AFC West or with a team that has struggled as much as the Raiders. Still, this is a pretty good football situation for Darnold as he continues to resurrect his career. Most Likely: Las Vegas Raiders,” Mosher wrote about Darnold’s most probable landing spot.
And this week alone, Mosher wasn’t isolated with the Las Vegas prediction. SI.com’s Albert Breer picked the Raiders, too, for Darnold. He recently wrote about the franchise tag and Darnold’s landing spot: “The franchise tag window opens tomorrow, and the two big decisions belong to Cincinnati (Tee Higgins) and Minnesota (Sam Darnold). Teams have two weeks before the deadline for making those calls, so I wouldn’t expect anything immediate.”
“I do think, for what it’s worth, Darnold would be a really good fit for Chip Kelly’s offense in Las Vegas.”
Not convinced? How about ESPN? “With the transition to coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders could finally solve their QB issue in free agency by signing Darnold. Las Vegas was 30th in QBR in 2024 (40.4), and Darnold’s 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdown throws for the Vikings both ranked fifth in the league. And in Vegas, Kelly could scheme for Darnold’s arm talent, while also using his mobility to attack the edges,” Matt Bowen wrote about Darnold to Las Vegas.
So, yes — that’s three major outlets merging Darnold’s future with the Raiders … in a period of days.
If Darnold swerves and doesn’t become a Raider, clubs like the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts could make sense.
Darnold can formally dip his toes in free-agent waters about 19 days from now.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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