The Sam Darnold Hint is Hiding in the Vikings’ Budget
Keep in mind that cap space that isn’t used in the upcoming season can be rolled over into the 2026 budget. If, for instance, the upcoming season ends with the Vikings sitting on an unused $20 million in open room, then that’s financial flexibility that will get shuffled forward into 2026. Don’t forget that point.
Why?
Well, there could be a hint in the Vikings’ budget about how they’re leaning when it comes to Sam Darnold. Last season, Mr. Darnold played like a QB1, a passer capable of being a (near) weekly difference maker. The end-of-season stats show a 14-3 record to stand alongside completing 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. But while that production is impressive, the Vikings appear to be leaning toward letting him walk away.
Sam Darnold and The Hint about How the Vikings Will Proceed
Recently, Kevin O’Connell has made it sound like Darnold is going to test free agency. If so, then he’s likely a goner.
March is silly season. Teams across the NFL will hand out contracts that they’ll live to regret. In fact, Minnesota will probably offer a deal or two that end up aging poorly. For Darnold specifically, it seems likely that he’ll land a deal that becomes too expensive for Minnesota to match given what’s coming in the future.
Consider, for instance, just the contract for Justin Jefferson. The WR1 (after much wailing and gnashing of teeth) agreed to an extension last offseason. The end result was a cap hit in 2024 that came in at a manageable $8.6 million; the cap hit in 2025 will be a still-reasonable $15.2 million; the cap hit in 2026 is going to explode, climbing up to a touch underneath $39 million.
So, quarterback money. Jefferson stands out since his contract is so huge, but there are other great players who are similarly accounting for a large portion of the accounting.
The tackle tandem of Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw are going to have some large cap charges, possessing near identical numbers in 2026 that come in above $23 million. Star tight end T.J. Hockenson sees his cap charge come in above $21 million. Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard is coming in at more than $22 million.
See the issue?
Seemingly all at once, the Vikings will need to find a way of navigating large cap hits to players who occupy premium positions. We’re talking about a WR1, a LT1, a RT1, a TE1, and an EDGE1. Great players playing very important positions for the Minnesota Vikings. Can the team really afford to also pay Sam Darnold?
In the NFL, the money always tells the truth. Coaches, executives, and players can say certain things. Consider what’s said but then place it alongside where the money is going. We’ll then see whether the words have any merit.
For the Vikings, the money tells us what their plan was. Yes, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah may have once bristled at the notion that Mr. Darnold was a mere bridge quarterback, but the way he structured his team’s finances strongly suggest that he was planning on a rookie-contract passer being the starter by 2026.
Of course, the team could try to thread the needle. There’s open room in 2025 — $58 million — enough to bring Darnold back for another season while then moving on in 2026. Pursuing that strategy would give McCarthy a bit more time to get his body right as he continues to prepare himself to take over as a starter in the NFL.
The issue is simply that the NFL salary cap doesn’t exist in isolation from year to year, as discussed up top. If the Vikings save millions within their 2025 budget, then that’s money that’s going to get shifted over into 2026, better positioning the team to afford those heavy cap charges for Jefferson, Darrisaw, O’Neill, etc.
Keeping Sam Darnold in 2025 isn’t a perfect solution, one that has no bearing on 2026 when a lot of the cap hits really swell. Rather, it’s one that comes at a cost.
The plan, quite evidently, was to have a rookie-contract QB — No. 10 pick J.J. McCarthy — functioning as the top passer sooner rather than later. The approach allows for being able to carry the weighty contracts of excellent veterans playing at premium positions.
Combining some of the basic facts about the Vikings’ budget with O’Connell’s recent words make it appear as though Sam Darnold will be playing quarterback for a different team in 2025.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.
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