Beware of Misdirection with Sam Darnold and the Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings signed quarterback Sam Darnold as a “bridge” quarterback 10 months ago, drafting J.J. McCarthy six weeks later and pairing Darnold with McCarthy while the rookie watched and learned.
Beware of Misdirection with Sam Darnold and the Vikings
Then, in August, McCarthy tore his meniscus in a preseason game, ending his entire rookie season and instantly promoting Darnold to the season-long QB1. He flourished for 16 weeks, passing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 picks.
And with Darnold’s contract scheduled for just one season, a popular question this offseason involves a would-be sequel in Minnesota. The question is basically, “Will he stay, or will he go?”
Sportsbooks have nominated McCarthy as the odds-on favorite to lead the franchise in September, but some still believe that the Vikings’ brass will hedge the bet at quarterback, welcoming Darnold back and plopping him into a summer competition with McCarthy.
While that’s possible, it’s vital to remember the Vikings’ foremost interest regarding Darnold: general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can still trade him in the next five weeks, potentially applying the franchise tag and then sending him to the highest bidder via trade.
In that vein, Adofo-Mensah, the team’s ownership group, and head coach Kevin O’Connell might endorse Darnold’s return to the Twin Cities if only to gain leverage in possible trade negotiations.
For example, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero dialed back the popular “Darnold is gone” theory last week. He spoke with Sportskeeda and sang a different tune about Darnold’s offseason.
“I would say on paper the most logical outcome of this is Sam Darnold still in Minnesota. J.J. McCarthy missed his entire rookie season coming off knee surgery,” Pelissero opined. “They believe in him. They’re not trading J.J. McCarthy. But there’s no precedent for a guy missing an entire year of reps as a rookie and coming back and playing again like it hasn’t happened.”
Pelissero added, “All I know is Sam Darnold played the best football of his career under Kevin O’Connell. The last two games notwithstanding it makes sense for Sam Darnold. All things equal to come back, it makes sense for the Vikings to bring him back. They won 14 games with him. They also have the franchise tag at their disposal if they choose to use it.”
Darnold played wonderfully for 16 games, guiding Minnesota to an unforeseen 14-2 record entering Week 18. Yet, the 27-year-old crumbled in the final two games, causing the Vikings to lose a winner-take-all matchup against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field that would’ve awarded Minnesota homefield advantage and again the following week in the Wildcard Round of the postseason.
It may be vividly obvious that McCarthy as Minnesota’s QB1 in 2025 makes the most sense. He’s affordable, hungry, and a 1st-Rounder. However, if Darnold-needy teams know they can simply sign him via free agency, well, the Vikings would get nothing for him via trade.
Therefore, any time a listener hears or sees a report stating, “I’m told the Vikings want Darnold back,” know that it could be misdirection. In theory, if the Vikings did the opposite — “J.J. McCarthy is our guy” — the franchise would receive nothing via trade because Minnesota would’ve played its hand.
It’s a bit similar to how organizations are mum during a draft build-up. Can’t tell the enemy your plans.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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