Vikings Projected for Purgatory
Minnesota Vikings fans are utterly stoked about the 2025 campaign, broaching an era with an almost-rookie quarterback for the first time since Teddy Bridgewater in 2014.
If the record 8-9 feels familiar for the Vikings, it’s because experts have picked this before.
J.J. McCarthy will take the baton this season, and because Minnesota won 14 games in 2024 with Sam Darnold, most Vikings enthusiasts expect McCarthy to guide the team to some semblance of a winning record this year.
But don’t tell that to Bleacher Report, a site that recently picked Minnesota to finish with the purgatory record: 8-9.
Bleacher Report Says 8-9 for Vikings
BR’s Moe Moton predicted win-loss records for each NFL team last week, and for Kevin O’Connell’s squad, that record checked in at 8-9.
Moton wrote, “In 2024, the Minnesota Vikings surprised most people with a 14-3 record. DraftKings Sportsbook projected their win total at 6.5. Sam Darnold put together his first Pro Bowl campaign, leading the sixth-ranked passing attack. Head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin O’Connell deserves a ton of credit for helping Darnold reinvent himself on his fourth NFL team.”
“Yet the Vikings allowed Darnold to walk in free agency because they believe second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is ready to take the offensive reins. O’Connell has worked well with veteran quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Darnold. McCarthy hasn’t taken a regular-season snap, though. According to ESPN’s Kevin Seifert, he tore his meniscus and needed two surgeries to repair it.”
McCarthy had one surgery and a standard clean-up procedure in December that some media outlets immediately called a “second surgery.” The verbiage was used to stoke fear. McCarthy is 100% ready as of May.
Moton continued, “On top of McCarthy’s inexperience, he must also knock off some rust and build a rapport with his top playmakers. The Vikings have the supporting cast to prop up a young quarterback, and their defense can help them win low-scoring games, but this team will regress with a first-year starter under center, perhaps more than most would expect after a 14-win campaign.”
“On the road, McCarthy will face stout defenses within the NFC North and in Pittsburgh, Seattle and Los Angeles. Chargers lead skipper Jim Harbaugh coached him at Michigan and knows his weaknesses. The Vikings come back to earth and drop out of the playoff picture in 2025. 2025 projection: 8-9.”
So, there you have it: a middle-of-the-road prediction for a team desperately seeking to end middle-of-the-road habits.
Last Place behind the Bears and Lions in the NFC North
Moton curiously assigned the Chicago Bears a 10-7 mark, with the Detroit Lions at 9-8, and the Green Bay Packers at 12-5.
Yes, that plopped Minnesota in the NFC North basement, on deck for a last-place finish in the division.
Moton defended the Bears’ 10-7 prognostication: “This offseason, the Chicago Bears made changes that will result in significant progress. They hired former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who can install a physical identity with the Bears’ revamped personnel group. The Bears have one of the league’s top offensive and defensive play-callers. Johnson and Allen will elevate an underachieving roster that played for an interim head coach for the final five weeks of the 2024 term.”
8-9 Predictions Are from the Kirk Cousins Era. Yikes.
The 8-9 tally for Minnesota is a bit comical because that’s the record used at this time on the calendar for most seasons in the Kirk Cousins era.
Sportsbooks and NFL analysts usually believed Minnesota would hover around an 8-8 mark with Cousins at the helm, although a Cousins-led team has never finished exactly 8-8.
The main objective of the McCarthy era is to end mediocrity.
A 6.5-Win Forecast Last Year
Heading into 2024, with Darnold in line to play QB1, oddsmakers predicted Minnesota to win six or seven games. It showed up in September, winning its first five contests and later tabulating a 14-3 record overall.
Darnold skipped town in free agency for the Seattle Seahawks in March, but most fans think McCarthy can eventually top Darnold’s performance. Darnold accounted for 36 total touchdowns and 4,319 passing yards last season. It may take a while for McCarthy to accrue those fancy numbers.
The League’s 5th-Toughest Schedule
If Moton turns out to be correct and the 8-9 purgatory record is a real thing, it will probably be because the schedule was so deadly.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Vikings have the NFL’s fifth-most challenging schedule, and a quick glance at all 18 weeks does little to refute Sharp’s projection.
It’s worth noting, however, that Sharp claimed Minnesota’s schedule was also the fifth-hardest last year, and to reiterate, O’Connell’s team later won 14 games.
The Vikings’ first regular season game at Chicago is precisely 16 weeks away.
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