Vikings Mired in a Particularly Hellish Drought
Does something feel weird as of late about Minnesota Vikings football? It should. The team has suddenly stopped forcing interceptions and fumbles, so much so that a bad franchise record has quietly snuck up on the club.
The drought could end rather abruptly at any time, but the Minnesota Vikings are experiencing a dry spell that is quite concerning.
The Vikings haven’t forced a turnover since Week 3 against the Bengals, and if they don’t create a takeaway on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Chargers, the club will set a dubious franchise record.
Vikings Forced Turnovers Have Stopped
Everyone stopped collecting interceptions and fumble recoveries.
Brian Flores’ Defense Desperately Needs a Turnover or Two
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Dublin, the Cleveland Browns in London, and the Philadelphia Eagles in Minneapolis, the Vikings have forced zero interceptions and fumbles. Zilch.
Accordingly, the club exited that three-game stretch with one win and two losses.
Flores’ defense is usually known for forcing turnovers at a breakneck pace, and in fact, since Kevin O’Connell took over the Vikings in 2022, the team ranks in the Top 5 leaguewide in takeaways. But all of that has stopped in the last three games — rather unceremoniously.
The Parade against the Bengals — and Then Nothing
Minnesota forced five turnovers against the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that looked like a total joke that particular week. Cornerback Isaiah Rodgers produced one of the all-time great performances in Vikings history, scoring twice on defense, forcing two fumbles, and playing perfect pass coverage.
Life was great.
The Bengals suffered their worst loss in franchise history per score margin on that September day, and Kevin O’Connell’s team had righted the ship.
It’s just that the same club stopped forcing turnovers after that contest. None since.
Statistical Context
The Vikings have battled three-game stretches with no turnovers five times in franchise history — all relatively recently. The streaks occurred in these seasons:
- 2018 (twice)
- 2016
- 2015
- 2013
The NFL has really emphasized turnover reduction in the last 20+ years, in case one was wondering why these seasons are so recent.
If Minnesota has no takeaways on Thursday Night Football, it will mark the first time since 1961 — so, ever — that it went four games without one.
Difficult QB Schedule on the Way
The math states that turnovers should begin to flood into Flores’ defense. That’s usually what happens when an outlier stat rectifies. For example, remember in 2022 when the Vikings won close games right and left? The 2023 campaign arrived, and Minnesota began to lose some of those close games.
The problem with “Oh, this stat will figure itself out” is the upcoming schedule. In the next three weeks, barring injury, Minnesota will face quarterbacks Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, and Lamar Jackson. Also known as three of the league’s Top 12 passers.
They’re not staring at Dillon Gabriels and Spencer Rattlers. It’s a bit of a murderer’s row per quarterback competition.
The Athletic on Sunday’s Turnovers
About the offense in Week 7, Alec Lewis of The Athletic wrote, “Carson Wentz threw two head-scratching interceptions Sunday. The first was a pick-six, run back by Eagles linebacker Jalyx Hunt early in the game. The second was a deep-ball heave, intercepted by Eagles rookie safety Andrew Mukuba. It wasn’t all bad for Wentz, who played with a serious injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Specifically in the second half, head coach and play-caller Kevin O’Connell aired it out with success. That’s how Wentz tallied 313 yards on 26-of-42 passing.”
“Turnovers remain the most predictive statistic of winning. O’Connell’s teams are 32-3 when they break even or win the turnover margin. Minnesota lost that margin 2-0 on Sunday. The offensive operation was enough throughout most of the afternoon.”
Just one takeaway might’ve changed the outcome of Minnesota’s loss.
“The Vikings ran almost 1 1/2 times the number of plays as the Eagles. In the second half, it seemed like O’Connell had a bead on Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s coverages, to the point that he was supplying communication to Wentz in his headset. Ultimately, the turnovers were too much to overcome. That’ll be the most pivotal metric this coming Thursday night as the Vikings travel to Los Angeles on a short week to play the Chargers,” Lewis concluded.
You’ll know the Vikings are ready to start winning when they start forcing turnovers again.
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