Vikings Have a “Misvalued” Free Agent
Sam Darnold produced a season worthy of backdoor MVP consideration in 2024, recording 4,319 passing yards, 36 total touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The Minnesota Vikings were straight cruising with Darnold in charge, boasting a 14-2 record through 16 games.
Vikings Have a “Misvalued” Free Agent
He and his team later collapsed, losing in the Wildcard Round to the Los Angeles Rams. Most Vikings fans decided J.J. McCarthy would be a smarter solution for the future, hoping to implement a quarterback who might not faceplant when it mattered the most.
So, in all likelihood, Darnold will test free agency in two weeks, and according to NFL.com, his current contractual prognosis could be “misvalued.” Kevin Patra detailed 10 NFL free agents with the misvalued label, and Darnold kicked off his list.
“After shining under Kevin O’Connell, Darnold has earned the right to be given a long-term contract. How the season ended would scare me from committing big bucks to the former first-round pick. Yet, as the top signal-caller bound for free agency (unless he is franchise-tagged), that’s probably where his market is going,” Patra explained.
“Darnold steadied the Vikings and showed an ability to win close games, but he also got away with some misses, credited with 25 turnover-worthy plays by Pro Football Focus, tied for most in the NFL (including playoffs). Would he continue to thrive outside of KOC’s cushy offense and without the league’s highest-paid receiver on the roster?”
Whether Patra is right or wrong about Darnold’s misconstrued value, a handful of teams will nibble at his free agency if he indeed hits the open market. The Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New York Jets lead the way in Darnold’s rumor mill. The Raiders can be classified as the frontrunner to fetch his services.
Patra concluded, “If I were a club with offensive line questions, I’d be wary of shelling out $40 million annually for Darnold, who can get scattershot under pressure. Baker Mayfield is making $33 million per year on his three-year pact with the Bucs. Personally, I’d rather have Mayfield straight up, let alone when the potential price difference is factored in.”
The misvalued theory checks out to an extent. Mayfield may be more reliable than Darnold, especially after Darnold’s two-game debacle in 2024. The counterpoint: the NFL salary cap climbed even higher this offseason, meaning $40 million could really be the going rate for a quarterback who threw 35 touchdowns.
More realistically, Darnold’s next deal will probably check in around the middle — between Mayfield’s $33 million and the hotspot $40 million prediction usually associated with Darnold’s value.
Perhaps the Raiders will hand Darnold $105 million over three years.
NFL free agency gets underway in two weeks with “legal tampering.”
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Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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