The Realism of a Sam Darnold Trade
Before Week 18, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold absolutely reclaimed his career after bust-worthy seasons from 2018 to 2023.
The Realism of a Sam Darnold Trade
The veteran passer helped Minnesota win 14 games in 16 weeks, delivering 36 touchdowns in 2024 on the whole, accompanied by a smolderingly good 4,319 passing yards. In Week 18, however, the wheels fell off The Darnold Automobile, and he — almost singlehandedly — created a one-and-done playoff scenario for the once-promising Vikings.
Until he malfunctioned, many wondered if Minnesota might franchise tag-and-trade Darnold this offseason, who signed a one-year contract last March. The working theory suggested that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could perhaps trade Darnold for a 2nd-Round pick while tendering his $40 million franchise tag.
Well, his two-game faceplant evidently dipped his value — so much so that a trade suitor might only offer a late-round pick via trade.
The Athletic‘s Alec Lewis claimed last week that a quarterback-needy team would probably send a draft pick from Rounds 4 through 7 for Darnold’s services. He answered a question about Darnold’s trade value: “The answer depends on the interest level of quarterback-needy teams. The Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Giants and Browns might be interested. Las Vegas is the most flush with cap space.”
“If the Raiders hire a head coach who could build an intriguing enough infrastructure (say, Ben Johnson, though that ship has sailed), Darnold may be interested. In that situation, the Vikings would have to weigh the value of a late-round pick versus what they could potentially recoup as a compensatory pick.”
Minnesota will likely hand the QB1 baton to J.J. McCarthy in 2025, a man who battled Darnold during training camp and the preseason for the 2024 starter’s job before tearing his meniscus in mid-August and missing his entire rookie season.
On the would-be Darnold trade, there’s absolutely no reason to tag-and-trade the man if the Vikings would only get a late-rounder in exchange. His trade price is the hinge in the hypothetical trade scenario.
Last offseason, quarterback Kirk Cousins left for the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, and Minnesota is on deck to receive a compensatory draft pick in Round 3. If Darnold nets something similar for the Vikings, a trade is wholly unnecessary.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ current leadership group, the aforementioned Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell, have built a culture that values player empowerment and culture. Trading the 2024 QB1 via the franchise tag for a 5th-Round pick, for example, doesn’t align with their way of doing business. Most players despise the franchise tag.
If Darnold fetched a 1st– or 2nd-Rounder — his expected value before his late-season collapse — perhaps the risk of franchise tag-and-trade would be worth it. However, slapping the franchise tag on Darnold, risking the payment of $40 million in 2025 if no team wanted him via trade, is flat-out way too risky.
The Vikings should thank Darnold for 16 sweet games, let him ride off into free agency, and start McCarthy in September.
Trading him for a late-rounder seems dumb, purposeless, and unbecoming of how Minnesota has conducted business as of late.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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