ESPN Warns of “Seismic Shift” for Vikings
The hottest topic surrounding Minnesota Vikings football, until it is resolved, is the franchise’s decision on Sam Darnold.
ESPN Warns of “Seismic Shift” for Vikings
The organization can extend Darnold beyond his one-year, $10 million deal from 2024, franchise tag him, franchise tag-and-trade him, or let him venture to open free agency in 19 days.
And according to ESPN, reinvesting in Darnold would represent a “seismic shift” from the original plan — starting J.J. McCarthy, who the team drafted in the 1st Round 10 months ago.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano sized up one contractual question from each NFL team this week, and for Minnesota, that was the plausibility of retaining Darnold. “The Vikings would be blowing up their plans not just for McCarthy but for their entire roster if they brought back Darnold. That isn’t to say they won’t or shouldn’t, after the season he just had, but it would be a seismic shift in their plans from just last summer,” he wrote.
Theoretically, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could use the franchise tag on Darnold in the next two weeks and basically own the rights to Darnold’s contract for the price of approximately $41 million. Adofo-Mensah would have the leverage to trade Darnold to a squad of the Vikings’ choosing, perhaps working in partnership with Darnold’s representation to find the best landing spot.
The problem? Darnold performed inadequately in the Vikings’ final two games of 2024, driving down his trade value. Before a Week 18 collapse and stinker in the playoffs, some believed Minnesota could fetch a 2nd-Round draft pick or so for Darnold’s services. Now, a mid-rounder feels more likely — if Adofo-Mensah used the tag-and-trade option at all.
Graziano added, “The cap numbers for J.J. McCarthy over the next three years are roughly $5 million, $6 million and $7 million. That’s an absolute steal if he can be a starting NFL quarterback, which the Vikings obviously believed when they selected him 10th overall in last year’s draft. Having a capable QB on a rookie deal allows a team to do other things with its cap, including in this case paying Justin Jefferson $35 million per year to play wide receiver.”
“Jefferson’s 2026 and 2027 cap numbers are roughly $39 million and $43.5 million, respectively, which certainly indicates the Vikings are expecting to save elsewhere in those years.”
Graziano’s analysis is a fancy way of saying the Vikings don’t have the money to re-sign Darnold unless they want to return to the Kirk Cousins era of team-building — paying a decent quarterback big money while filling out the roster with mid-tier free agents or those from the bargain bin.
Per a recent Kevin O’Connell quote, Minnesota’s head coach might’ve already predicted the future: allowing Darnold to test free agency with no extension or franchise tag-and-trade.
“Look, you guys know how I feel about Sam. He is a guy that we identified last year as somebody who could come in and be successful. And really no matter where he was at before he arrived in his quarterback journey, it was about maximizing our time together,” O’Connell said about Darnold one week ago.
“And I think we did that, and I think it was a very special year for Sam. And what that earned him is, everybody in our league now thinks he’s a bona fide legitimate starting quarterback and can win a lot of football games. He won 14 of them,” O’Connell added.
O’Connell then got to the chase: “So he’s earned the right to be a free agent, but we will continue to have ongoing dialogue and discussions with him and his representation.”
Earning the right to be a free agent is usually verbiage to signal that the player will indeed hit free agency.
In all likelihood, Minnesota will avoid ESPN’s “seismic shift” warning, mainly because the original plan called for McCarthy, not Darnold, as the QB1 for the long term. It also helps that McCarthy could be $35 million cheaper per season over the next three seasons.
Folks will learn Darnold’s fate in less than three weeks when free agency begins.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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