ESPN Analyst Picks Vikings as Team Set to Decline in 2025
The 2025 NFL regular season is right around the corner, and as a result, this next week or two is prime opportunity for many analysts to get out their final predictions for the season.
Which teams will rise? Which teams will fall? Which teams will be the biggest surprises? Which teams will be the biggest disappointments? These are just a few questions that many are trying to answer.
And according to one ESPN analyst, the Minnesota Vikings could be a team set to decline in 2025 following their playoff appearance last season.
ESPN Analyst Picks Vikings to Decline in 2025
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently put out his annual piece breaking down which teams he believes are set to decline in 2025. The Vikings were listed among the five.
Barnwell lays out a few reasons behind this, one being Minnesota’s unusually high winning percentage in one-possession games last season. Of course, the Vikings went 8-1 in games decided by a single score. Barnwell doesn’t see that happening again in 2025, laying down a comparison between Minnesota’s 2023 fall from the playoffs following their 2022 success.
“The Vikings went 8-1 in one-score games last season. If they had done that after the 2022 season, Kevin O’Connell would be lauded as the game management wizard of his generation. Instead, they went 4-8 in one-score games between those two seasons, and while things might have been different if Kirk Cousins had stayed healthy, four of those losses came in the first five weeks, when Cousins was on the field. O’Connell is still an excellent coach, but he’s probably not going to win 88% of his close games again,” Barnwell wrote.
It’s a fair expectation, particularly considering the Vikings will be running J.J. McCarthy onto the field, who has never started a regular season NFL game.
Bumps in the road should be expected from the young QB, particularly considering how thin Minnesota’s wide receiver room could be at the start of the season. There inevitably will be a few mistakes that cost the Vikings wins here and there during McCarthy’s first starts.
Additionally, Barnwell points to Minnesota’s defense and their high turnover rate, which could be difficult to replicate in 2025. Last season, the Vikings tied for the NFL lead in takeaways with 33, including 24 interceptions, which was by far the most in the NFL.
“Looking at 2000 to 2023 and the teams that ranked in the top five in turnovers per drive — as the Vikings did a year ago — just 17% of those teams finished in the top five again the following season. Their average rank in turnover rate was 15th. Minnesota could certainly field an excellent defense again, but it probably won’t lead the league in turnovers,” Barnwell argued.
This is a fair critique as well. The Vikings got some very strong production out of names like Shaq Griffin and Stephon Gilmore last year while Byron Murphy turned in the best season of his NFL career. Murphy is solidified at the top of the Vikings’ cornerback room, but with new names like Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah, who have never proven to be consistently great cornerbacks in the NFL, we may need to see it in order to believe that the consistency there will continue.
The Vikings also will be without Camryn Bynum at the safety position, who had turned into one of the best free safeties in the league. Now, they will run Josh Metellus – a fantastic defender in his own right -, a 36-year-old Harrison Smith, and an up-and-comer in Theo Jackson. Questions exist in Minnesota’s secondary.
That being said, it can be argued that Minnesota’s defensive front got significantly better as long as they can stay healthy. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave are substantial improvements over names like Jonathan Bullard and Dean Lowry, particularly as pass rushers, which could lead to forcing opposing QBs into poor decisions.
Ultimately, though, while the Vikings may see a decrease in wins from their 14-3 season in 2024, Barnwell does not foresee a total collapse in Minnesota.
“The Vikings are a pretty unique team. The age of their roster and the moves they have made suggest they’re trying to win right now, but they have what essentially amounts to a rookie quarterback leading the way. And while we normally associate debuting quarterbacks with subpar teams and young rosters, McCarthy is taking over a 14-win team, something I’m not sure has ever happened in the modern era. I’m not expecting a dropoff below .500 like the one we saw in 2023, but a record more in line with their 11.1-win point differential from 2024 would make sense,” Barnwell concluded.
If the Vikings finish 2025 with 11 wins during McCarthy’s first season as the starting quarterback, fans should consider it a success.
You must be logged in to post a comment.