Vikings Start 3-Game Finishing Gauntlet at Seattle
When the Vikings schedule was released in May, I said if the team could weather the early storm of five 2023 playoff teams in the first seven games and emerge 3-4 or even 2-5, the schedule would then ease up so the team could go on a middle of the season run.
I certainly didn’t expect the 5-0 start that became 5-2 and put the team in great shape, nor did I think the Vikings would win the next seven games (I thought they’d split with the Bears, who they swept). But I also said the final three games would be difficult, and that’s where the Vikings are now with facing Seattle in a tough road game this Sunday (where they have lost the last five trips, all during the Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll era) followed by huge divisional matchups with Green Bay at home and at Detroit.
Vikings Start 3-Game Finishing Gauntlet at Seattle
Can the Vikings win all three, claim the NFC North title from Detroit, and enter the playoffs with a top-two seed (possibly the No. 1 seed) and a 10-game winning streak? It may seem unlikely, but how likely was it that the Purple would reach this final three-regular season game gauntlet at 12-2?
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Seahawks in their loud stadium on Sunday to reach an amazing 13-2:
1. Lean on the defense in a tough road environment, and on offense, avoid pre-snap penalties. The Vikings have played well on the road this season (5-1). They will play two of the last three games in loud stadiums: Seattle and Detroit.
The Vikings are coming off a game with 10 penalties, many of them pre-snap (three by LT Cam Robinson), and that was at home. Kevin O’Connell is surely emphasizing the importance of avoiding penalties this week and practicing silent counts for the offense.
2. Stop the run and pressure Geno Smith or Sam Howell into turnovers: the Seahawks were whipped at home 30-13 by Green Bay last Sunday, with the Packers sacking Smith three times (with a knee injury the result) and Howell four times with each QB throwing one pick. The Seahawks have allowed 47 sacks, fourth most in the league, and the Vikings have 43 sacks (ninth most, although not as many in recent weeks as earlier in the season).
Smith is practicing and should start. He’s thrown 13 interceptions — third most in the league — so the Vikings need to pressure him into sacks or turnovers.
Starting back Kenneth Walker missed the Green Bay game but is expected back this week. Zach Charbonnet is a good No. 2 with eight rushing TDs. The Vikings were better against the run in the Bears game and still rank second in the league, but they have to wait another week to get Ivan Pace back. They need to shut down Seattle’s No. 28 run game and must be wary of Smith’s scrambles (231 rushing yards by him, but perhaps the knee injury will limit his running this week).
3. Cover a talented wide receiver trio: Seattle has the NFL’s fifth-ranked passing attack. If Smith has time to throw, it could be trouble for the Vikings’ secondary, but it’s good news that Stephon Gilmore has recovered from his hamstring injury and is expected to start at corner. Seattle has a strong trio of wide receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba (85 catches, 994 yards, 5 TDs), DK Metcalf (57 catches, 840 yards, 3 TDs), and Tyler Lockett (43 receptions, 542 yards, 2 TDs).
The pressure is on corners Gilmore, Byron Murphy, and Shaq Griffin over these next three games and into the playoffs against dynamic wide receivers they’ll face each week. A great pass rush will certainly help their cause and the safeties need to play well in zone coverages.
4. Win the turnover battle: The Vikings have the edge at plus 8 vs. Seattle’s minus 5. Darnold has only had one turnover in the last five games, and that was due to a fourth-down desperation throw under pressure by the Bears.
5. Run the ball: In their win last week, the Packers rushed for 140 yards, including 94 yards (and one TD) by Josh Jacobs. The Seahawks rank 22nd against the run, so the Vikings should pound it on the ground to set up play-action passes.
6. Keep Leonard Williams off his former Jets’ teammate Darnold, and Sam must be more accurate: Williams is the Seahawks’ best defensive player with seven sacks, 12 tackles-for-loss, and 49 tackles. He had a 92-yard interception return against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in Week 13.
Jordan Love was not sacked last week in Seattle and had time to find receivers open downfield (Romeo Doubs had two TD receptions).
Darnold was inaccurate on too many passes against the Bears, and he must return to his higher level of play the week before against Atlanta when he threw five touchdown passes. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones out of the backfield should find plenty of big play opportunities if the offensive line, Josh Oliver, and C.J. Ham do a good job in protection. They must also guard against the delayed blitzes that have hurt the Vikings the last several weeks.
7. Will Reichard must make all his field goals as he did last week, and the Vikings need to clean up the punt protection (with the blocked punt by the Bears on a busted blocking assignment) because teams will be coming after Ryan Wright.
The Vikings have an edge with Reichard over Jason Myers, who has missed three field goals and three extra points this season. Two of Reichard’s three missed field goals were in the Colts game when he pulled his quad, and Reichard is perfect (32 for 32) on extra points.
8. Get off to a quick start to try to quiet the crowd that didn’t like the team’s poor performance against Green Bay, which resulted in a 30-13 defeat. The Seahawks were not competitive after Smith was hurt, and Howell ineffectively replaced him.
It’s also interesting that Seattle’s much-ballyhooed home-field advantage hasn’t paid off this season with a 3-5 home record.
The Vikings also need to continue their strong finishes: The Vikings have outscored opponents 41-12 in the fourth quarter the last three weeks, which should add to their confidence that they can finish well.
Predicting the outcome: This is a dangerous game against a team fighting the Rams and Cardinals for the NFC West title (Seattle and L.A. are tied at 8-6, with the Rams having won the first meeting and the two teams meet in the season finale in L.A.). The Vikings will play better against the tougher competition than last week.
I see the Vikings’ edge rushers and blitzers putting a lot of pressure on Smith, who may be less mobile than usual, and that should result in four sacks and a couple of interceptions. And I think the offense will run it well with Aaron Jones to set up Darnold’s play-action strikes to Jefferson and Addison.
It won’t be easy, but I see the Vikings winning 27-24 on a late Reichard field goal.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 16:
1. In the NFC North, Detroit is at Chicago, and the injury-riddled Lions should have enough on offense to handle the shaky Bears, but they better beware as Chicago almost knocked them off in Motown on Thanksgiving in a three-point game. 5-9 New Orleans doesn’t have much chance against the 10-4 Packers in Lambeau unless the Pack is caught looking ahead to next week’s big game in Minnesota.
2. Other big games — there are two good matchups on Saturday: Houston at Kansas City, with the Chiefs trying to lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed with two more wins or one win and one Bills loss. Pittsburgh at Baltimore, with the Steelers able to clinch the AFC North with a win, but I think the Ravens will win to pull even with the Steelers.
The Eagles can wrap up the NFC East at Washington. 10 straight wins say they will do just that.
3. Atlanta hosts the Giants and needs a win to stay one game behind Tampa Bay in the NFC South. The Bucs play at Dallas on Sunday night. The Falcons’ quarterback won’t be their $100 million man, Kirk Cousins, who is being benched. First-round pick Michael Penix Jr. is taking over.
It’s sad to see how bad this season has turned out for Cousins, who is a good guy. Nine interceptions in the last five games, combined with a 1-4 record, forced this move, which likely means Cousins will be released in the offseason. He’ll surely sign with another team in 2025 but for a lot less money. He wanted to make it work in Atlanta, where his wife’s family lives.
Ivan Pace Jr.’s Return Comes into Focus
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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