Vikings and Falcons Showing Predictions Are Mostly Foolhardy
Sunday’s matchup between the Vikings and Falcons is a game that Kirk Cousins, the Vikings organization, and fans of the Purple circled on the calendar when the schedule was announced back in May.
The prevailing expectation then in Atlanta was Cousins (with his $45 million per year contract and $100 million guarantee that the Vikings balked at) would be the missing link to lift a talented Falcons team that was held back by lousy QB play in 2023. The narrative went that he would lead them to the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and their first NFC South title since 2016.
Vikings and Falcons Showing Predictions Are Mostly Foolhardy
The hope among Vikings fans (and probably the team’s brass) was first-round QB J.J. McCarthy would take over the No. 1 QB spot early on from Sam Darnold and play well enough for the team to have a winning season and sneak into a wild card spot with high hopes for future seasons under a younger QB on a relatively cheap rookie contract.
In a league where about half the playoff teams turn over every year, predictions are mostly foolhardy with the Vikings and Falcons as prime examples this season. The Vikings have ridden Darnold’s career year and an opportunistic defense to a 10-2 record as one of the league’s biggest surprises. The Falcons and Cousins started well enough at 6-3 but have since lost three straight with Cousins playing poorly (no TDs and six interceptions in the three losses, including four picks last week in a 17-13 disheartening home loss to the Chargers).
The Vikings are thriving and have three of their last five games at home. The Falcons are struggling to hold on in the weak NFC South over the Buccaneers, who tied them for first place at 6-6.
It sets up a fascinating game on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium (and it’s still hard to believe the NFL and the networks didn’t flex it into prime time). It should’ve been flexed to this coming Monday night in place of a lackluster matchup with 4-8 Cincinnati at 5-7 Dallas (with no Dak Prescott).
This is a big game for both teams. The Vikings try to stay close to the Lions and possibly clinch a playoff spot, and the Falcons need to regain momentum, with the Buccaneers now tied with them.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over Cousins and the Falcons:
1. Win the turnover battle: The turnover ratio is the biggest differentiator between the two teams. The Vikings are plus-5 and lead the league in interceptions (18) while ranking second in takeaways (24). The Falcons are minus 6 with 17 giveaways (ninth most), and Cousins leads the NFL with 13 picks, including the four last weeks, with a Pick-6 — the winning score for the Chargers.
The Vikings have 19 giveaways (fifth most) after Aaron Jones’ lost fumble last week but the good news in this area for the Vikings is Darnold has not thrown an interception in the last three games (after having 10 in the first nine games). He needs to continue to be careful with his throws while still giving Justin Jefferson enough targets, even on 50-50 balls.
2. Protect Darnold better, and Jones hang on to the ball: The Cardinals sacked Darnold five times, most of them on blitzes that were not picked up. The Vikings’ interior offensive line must do a better job of recognizing the late-developing blitzes that were effective for Arizona and are sure to be copied by the Falcons and future opponents.
It will help to have Josh Oliver back in the lineup after missing the last two games. He’s one of the league’s best blocking tight ends and will give Darnold another quality target.
The Falcons have only 15 sacks this season, which ranks last, but they’re coming off a game with five sacks on Justin Herbert. The Vikings need to be wary of Matthew Judon, an edge rusher with only 2.5 sacks this season, but he had 15.5 sacks for the Patriots two years ago before missing most of last season in New England with a torn biceps (after four straight Pro Bowl seasons). DT Grady Jarrett (2.5 sacks) will be a handful for the Vikings’ interior O-line as one of the best at his position.
Jones promised this week that he’ll protect the ball better going forward. He has five fumbles (three lost) this season, and he’ll be on the bench if this continues. Cam Akers and Ty Chandler played more than usual last week after the fumbles and are quality players. When Jones doesn’t turn it over, he’s a step up from them.
3. Mix the run and pass: The Falcons’ defense ranks 22nd vs. the pass and 17th vs. the run, so they’re not elite in either area. Running the ball well will be critical, as always, to set up play action for the Vikings’ elite trio of Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, along with Oliver and Jones. Getting Jefferson involved early with some wide receiver screens and short passes will help move the ball.
4. Start quicker than last week and more up-tempo on offense: The Vikings were dominated by the Cardinals on both sides of the ball in the first half (outgained 228-75). The red zone defense (1 of 6) and the offense shifting to more up-tempo saved the day with the TD-field goal-TD finish for the offense and two fourth quarter interceptions plus NFC Defensive Player of the Month (for November) Jonathan Greenard’s last drive heroics (a sack/strip on second down and chasing down Murray on third down) setting up Shaq Griffin’s game-ending pick.
5. Defense do a better job stopping the run to make the Falcons one-dimensional: The Vikings held the No.1 rush defense spot despite allowing 154 yards on the ground to the Cardinals (48 by Kyler Murray). It will be easier with a non-mobile QB in Cousins compared to facing Caleb Williams and Murray the past two weeks.
The Vikings must contain Bijan Robinson, one of the league’s better running backs (885 rushing yards, ninth-ranked, 7 TDs, 4.6 yard average per carry). He also is a dual threat with 51 catches for 392 yards and one receiving TD).
6. Pressure Cousins: he appears less mobile than ever after his Achilles injury and this is a definite key for the Vikings to put the heat on him and force bad throws as he did last week against the Chargers. Atlanta has a highly paid O-line, and the 25 sacks given up are the 12th fewest. But the Vikings are fourth in sacks with 39 and should be able to get after Cousins with Greenard (10 sacks to rank 4th and 60 pressures to lead the league) and Andrew Van Ginkel (nine sacks) leading the charge upfront along with timely blitzes from Blake Cashman, Josh Metellus, and Harrison Smith against his old friend Cousins.
7. If Gilmore is out, give Moreau help, and the same goes for Metellus in coverage: The Vikings coaches said Fabian Moreau played well after Stephon Gilmore left the Cardinals game with a hamstring injury that could keep him out this week. Moreau did have a couple nice pass breakups but he was targeted often and beat for a TD by Marvin Harrison Jr. and had two costly pass interference penalties.
Brian Flores needs to give Moreau help with a safety against a couple of excellent wide receivers—Drake London (70 catches, 796 yards, 6 TDs) and Darnell Mooney (51 catches, 731 yards, 5 TDs).
Metellus was beaten too often in single coverage last week by Trey McBride, who had 12 receptions for 96 yards. Kyle Pitts (35 catches, 494, 3 TDs) is a former fourth overall pick in 2021 who is highly athletic but has struggled with only one catch for nine yards over the past two games. I expect the Falcons to try and get him much more involved after seeing McBride’s success last week. So Flores needs to give Metellus help—perhaps from Cashman who is an excellent cover LB–or have a corner cover Pitts.
8. Home crowd stay loud and force false starts: The Cardinals had four false starts among their 10 penalties. The Vikings need to stay relatively penalty-free as they’ve done lately, with only three last week (but two were big pass interference calls on Moreau).
9. Reichard kick well if he indeed returns (or another good game from Romo) and capitalize on a potential mismatch with Koo: Will Reichard has returned to practice (along with long snapper Andrew DePaola), and the rookie kicker is expected to be activated on Sunday in place of Parker Romo who missed a 43 yarder last week but otherwise kicked well the past four weeks (11 of 12 field goals, 7 of 8 PATs). Reichard made his first 14 field goals and all 23 extra points in the first seven games before his quad injury contributed to two missed field goals against Indianapolis.
Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo has missed eight field goals this season including five misses inside 50 yards.
Also, the kick coverage units must not allow any long returns, but if Reichard is fully healthy, he’ll boot all his kickoffs deep in the end zone, so the punt cover team and Ryan Wright need to do well.
Predicting the outcome:
I think the Vikings will get back to their usual excellent run defense and put the heat on Cousins, who will be more careful with the ball but still throw one pick and get strip-sacked once. The Vikings’ offense will start quicker, and Darnold will have a solid game against an average defense. Reichard also will outkick Koo.
The Vikings will win 24-17 to reach 11-2, keep the heat on the Lions, and perhaps clinch a playoff spot on Sunday.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 14:
1. The formula for the Vikings to clinch a wildcard berth is to beat Atlanta, while Seattle wins at Arizona and Buffalo beats the Rams in L.A. I think two-thirds of that will happen with the Vikings and Bills winning, but I think the Cardinals will win at home over the Seahawks.
2. In other Sunday games, I see the Bears losing their seventh straight when they travel to San Francisco. The 49ers think they’re still alive and will beat Chicago, but they’re not playoff material this season, given all their injuries and the tough remaining schedule.
The rest of the Week 14 schedule is pretty mundane except for the Sunday night game between the 11-1 Chiefs and the 8-4 Chargers. The Chiefs’ last five wins have been by one score, as have nine of their 11 wins (which is no sin, as the Vikings know well with their 7-1 record in one-score games this season). A Kansas City win will wrap up their ninth straight AFC West title, and I expect that to happen.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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