Vikings and Bears Going in Different Directions, Meet in Primetime
On October 13, the Vikings were undefeated at 5-0 and enjoying their bye. The Bears beat the Jaguars 35-16 for their third straight win. At that point, all four NFC North teams had winning records.
The Vikings have continued to ascend, with six straight wins, to reach 11-2. The only hiccups were a couple of close losses to the Lions and Rams. The Bears have gone in a negative direction, with seven consecutive losses, a streak that began with the Hail Mary defeat to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders.
Vikings and Bears Going in Different Directions, Meet in Primetime
During that stretch, Chicago lost three straight at home to the Patriots, Packers, and Vikings. Then came their excruciating three-point loss on Thanksgiving in Detroit (when they mismanaged the final drive, resulting in coach Matt Ebeflus’ firing) followed by last Sunday’s 38-13 shellacking at San Francisco when the Bears had four yards of net offense in the first half as they trailed 24-0.
Monday night’s game at U.S. Bank Stadium is obviously more important for the Vikings, who are trying to stay close to the Lions in the NFC North race. If 10-3 Buffalo upsets Detroit on Sunday, the Vikings will tie the Lions at 12-2 with a win over the Bears. The Vikings also want to stay at least two games ahead of the Packers, who have a tough Sunday night game at NFC West-leading Seattle (8-5).
The Vikings know not to take the Bears lightly after seeing rookie QB Caleb Williams rally his team from an 11-point deficit in the final minutes to force overtime in Week 12 at Soldier Field (with the help of Johnny Mundt’s botched onside kick recovery). Fortunately for the Purple, Jonathan Greenard had a big OT sack of Williams and Sam Darnold went 6 for 6 for 90 yards to set up Parker Romo’s game-winning field goal.
The Bears will be fired up to make a good showing individually and team-wise in this primetime game and certainly want to end their losing streak. And in division games, records often don’t matter.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Bears to reach 12-2:
1. Stop the run and sack Caleb Williams: The Bears struggled to run the ball in the Week 12 game against the Vikings. D’Andre Swift had only 30 rushing yards on 13 carries, and he’s been under 40 rushing yards in the last three games. Williams was the Bears’ leading rusher with 33 yards last time, so excellent LB Blake Cashman is likely to spy on him.
The Vikings have struggled against the run the last two weeks (Arizona and Atlanta allowed 154 and 158 rushing yards, respectively), and Ivan Pace’s absence due to his ankle injury is a significant factor. The Bears will want to run it to take the pressure off Williams.
The first overall pick has been up-and-down this season and has been hurt by poor protection. Williams has been sacked 56 times, most in the league. He comes off a game when the 49ers sacked him seven times. In the game three weeks ago, the Vikings sacked Williams three times and had only four QB hits on him. He did a good job of scrambling and finding open receivers with 340 passing yards, two TD tosses, and no interceptions.
The Vikings pass rushers, led by Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, must take advantage of the noisy home crowd, which has rattled other young quarterbacks this season. The noise helps the edge rushers get off quickly to beat the tackles. Then, they must take down the elusive Williams before he escapes the pressure. Brian Flores will surely send plenty of blitzes at the rookie quarterback.
2. Cover an excellent wide receiver trio: D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze combined for 21 catches, 231 yards, and two TDs in the last meeting. Starting corner Stephon Gilmore has missed practice time this week with his hamstring injury, and there’s a good chance he’ll be held out on Monday to get him in better health for the tough three-game finish with Seattle, Green Bay, and Detroit, followed by the playoffs.
The pressure is on corners Byron Murphy (who is having an excellent season with six picks), Shaq Griffin, and Fabian Moreau. A great pass rush will certainly help their cause and the safeties need to play well in the zone coverages.
3. Win the turnover battle: both teams are excellent in turnover ratio. The Vikings are plus 8, lead the league in interceptions (20), and rank second in takeaways (27), and Darnold hasn’t turned it over the past four games, which needs to continue. The Bears are plus 10 (fourth best) and have only 10 giveaways (fifth fewest) with Williams throwing only five picks (fourth fewest among starting QBs).
4. Darnold and Company stay hot with a mix of run and pass: The offense is coming off its best game of the season, with 42 points against Atlanta, 347 passing yards (and 5 TD passes) for Darnold, and a solid running game (115 yards).
Aaron Jones ran hard and well last week (73 yards, 5.6 average, and the 13-yard TD to ice the game). He rushed for 106 yards against the Bears’ 26th-ranked run defense last time. He needs to be a major factor again, with relief from Cam Akers (five carries for 37 yards last week) and Ty Chandler.
If the Bears play two-high safeties 90% of the time as they did last time to try and contain Justin Jefferson (holding him to two catches for 27 yards but he drew two big pass interference calls on Jaylon Johnson), it sets up another big opportunity for Jordan Addison who torched the Bears for eight catches, 162 yards and one TD and is coming off a terrific, three-TD game against Atlanta along with T.J. Hockenson.
And the O-line must protect Darnold well (three sacks and nine QB hits last time) and guard against the delayed blitzes that have hurt the Vikings the last two weeks.
5. Hockenson should be targeted often: The Bears couldn’t stop his last game (seven catches, 114 yards, including the 29-yard catch and run in OT that set up the game-winning field goal). 49ers TE George Kittle went off with six catches for 151 yards against a suspect Bears coverage scheme last week with several of his big plays coming on screens.
6. Keep having fewer penalties: The Bears had seven penalties for 80 yards in the November meeting vs. the Vikings 5 for 45 yards. Atlanta’s 12 penalties for 127 yards were a huge factor in the game last week.
7. Reichard make all his field goals and how about another blocked FG on Santos: The Vikings rookie kicker hit the left upright from 47 last week in his return but made all six extra points. The Vikings had a blocked FG on Santos in the Week 12 game, which followed the Packers winning the game the week before on a blocked field goal.
8. Home crowd stay loud and force false starts: the Cardinals had four false starts among their 10 penalties and the Falcons had three false starts.
9. Get off to a quick start to break the Bears’ spirit and finish better than last time in Chicago: The Vikings have outscored opponents 31-3 in the fourth quarter the last two weeks, which bodes well for having strong finishes going forward.
Predicting the outcome: I think the Vikings will play well in prime time and send the message that they’re a team to fear in the postseason. The loud home crowd will fluster Williams and the Bears’ O-linemen, and the Vikings’ edge rushers and blitzes will sack Williams five times and force a couple of turnovers. Darnold will get the ball to his playmakers, and Jones will run it well.
I pick the Vikings 30-17.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 15:
1. The formula for the Vikings to clinch a wildcard berth is to beat Chicago or have the Rams lose to the 49ers or the Seahawks lose to the Packers. The Vikings should be playoff-bound in this Week 15.
2. Big games on the schedule: 10-3 Buffalo at Detroit—can likely MVP Josh Allen will his team to a road upset after falling 44-42 to the Rams in L.A. last week. It will be a huge day for Jared Goff and the Lions’ potent offense in an exciting game the Lions will win.
9-4 Green Bay at 8-5 Seattle: key matchups are the Seahawks’ 10th-ranked pass defense vs. Jordan Love and his strong group of receivers and Josh Jacobs running against the 23rd-ranked run defense for Seattle. I see a big game for Jacobs and the Packers D picking off Geno Smith twice in a close win.
10-3 Pittsburgh at 11-2 Philadelphia in the battle of Pennsylvania between two division leaders. The key matchup is the Steelers 4th ranked run D vs Saquon Barkley and Philly’s No. 1 rushing offense. If the Steelers top the run, it will be interesting to see if Jalen Hurts can get the passing game going after the complaints this week from A.J. Brown about so little passing. On the other side of the ball, there’s Russell Wilson leading the Pittsburgh offense against Philly’s top-ranked D, but will top Steelers WR George Pickens (hamstring) play? I pick the Eagles at home to win their tenth straight.
3. And won’t it be fascinating to see how Bill Belichick does at North Carolina in the first college coaching job of his storied career, including six Super Bowl titles in New England?
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl.
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