Prediction for Vikings Bounce Back Game vs. Colts
Indianapolis Colts Coach Shane Steichen’s decision to bench second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson and start 39-year-old Joe Flacco on Sunday night against the Vikings creates a good-news-bad-news situation for Brian Flores and his defense.
Prediction for Vikings Bounce Back Game vs. Colts
The good news: Flacco is much less likely to take off running (28 rushing yards on six carries in two plus 2024 games) than the highly athletic Richardson, who has 242 rushing yards and one TD in his six starts this season.
But I think Flores would much prefer to face Richardson, who has the league’s worst passer rating (57.2), mostly due to being the NFL’s most inaccurate passer at an awful 44.4%.
Thus, the bad news is taking on Flacco as a much more efficient passer. He ranks ninth in passer rating at 102.2. He’s completed 65.7% of his passes with seven TDs and only one interception in his two starts this season (a 37-34 loss at Jacksonville and a 20-17 win at Tennessee plus he relieved the injured Richardson in the Colts Week 4 win over Pittsburgh).
Flacco was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year last season when he had a 4-1 record as Cleveland’s starter and led the Browns to a wildcard spot. He’ll face the current favorite for 2024 Comeback Player of the Year—Sam Darnold.
The poised Flacco led Baltimore to a Super Bowl victory in the 2012 season. He won’t be as likely to be rattled by the boisterous Vikings crowd at a night game or by Flores’ aggressive defensive scheme, which uses lots of blitzes and fake blitzes and is especially effective against young quarterbacks, such as in the Week 2 and 3 wins over San Francisco’s Brock Purdy and Houston’s C.J. Stroud.
They are two of the league’s best young quarterbacks. Purdy was sacked six times, threw one interception, and lost a fumble in the Vikings’ 23-17 Week 2 win, while the Vikings sacked Stroud four times and picked him off twice in the 34-7 Week 3 romp.
The Vikings D, along with Richardson’s shaky play lately, led Steichen to choose Flacco over the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft in Richardson. Steichen said, “Tough decision, but one I felt was in the best interest of our football team. Feel that Joe gives us the best chance to win right now.”
It should be an entertaining Sunday night game before a raucous Vikings crowd hoping to see an end to the two-game losing skid. The Vikings need this win to stay in the mix for the NFC North title with Detroit and Green Bay (who face each other at Lambeau earlier on Sunday afternoon).
The Vikings hope it’s easier to get the victory than the last time the Colts were in town in 2022. The Vikings had to make the biggest comeback in NFL history from a 33-0 halftime deficit to win 39-36 in overtime. Kirk Cousins threw for 460 yards and four TDs to lead the rally.
Perhaps it’s a good omen that the Colts’ QB that day was 37-year-old Matt Ryan, who, like Flacco, was an elder statesman in the NFL at the time.
Another sub-plot in this game is whether newly acquired OT Cam Robinson will see any playtime as a potential replacement for injured star OT Christian Darrisaw. Robinson is a solid player with 91 career starts in Jacksonville as their second-round pick in 2017.
T.J. Hockenson’s return to the lineup after his recovery from ACL surgery also will be interesting to see how he plays and how well he and Darnold connect.
Here are my keys to a Vikings victory over the Colts to reach 6-2 at approximately the halfway point in the 17-game regular season:
1. Run the ball: The Colts have the league’s 30th-ranked run defense and gave up 102 yards to Joe Mixon last week in Houston’s 23-20 win. This is a good week to get Aaron Jones, Ty Chandler, and perhaps Cam Akers rolling on the ground, which will set up play-action passes to Jefferson, Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor.
2. Protect Darnold so he can hit big plays downfield: with the O-line adjusting to the loss of Darrisaw, pass protection will be key. DeForest Buckner is a three-time Pro Bowl DT and will be tough for the Vikings’ interior linemen to handle.
This week’s best approach is to start Blake Brandel at left tackle, Dalton Risner at left guard, and give Robinson a few snaps while keeping David Quessenberry in a backup role. But with Buckner, the Colts’ best defensive lineman, O’Connell may keep Brandel at left guard this week and start Quessenberry rather than have Risner potentially match up with Buckner in Risner’s first game back from IR.
The Colts haven’t been a prolific pass-rushing team this season (16 sacks to rank 21st), but Darnold has been sacked 22 times, seventh-most in the league. If Darnold has time to throw and doesn’t hold the ball too long, as he’s done a bit more lately, he’ll have opportunities to make a lot of big plays against the Colts, who also are shaky in pass defense (24th). So it could be a big day for both the run and pass game.
3. I say it every week, but Jefferson has to be targeted more. He ranks second in the league with 646 receiving yards, but he’s only had double-digit targets in one game (vs. the Jets). Darnold will surely test Colts corners Samuel Womack and Jaylon Jones with Jefferson and his fellow wideouts after Stroud threw for 285 yards last week. Darnold should also work in the middle of the field with Hockenson and hit Jones out of the backfield.
4. Defense stops an elite running back in Jonathan Taylor: To make it more difficult for Flacco, the Vikings’ third-ranked run defense needs to contain Taylor, who led the league in rushing in 2021 before injuries limited him the last two years. He has 454 rushing yards, a 4.9-yard average, and five TD runs this season in five games played (an ankle injury kept him out of three games).
We’ll see if the Vikings’ excellent inside LB Blake Cashman has recovered from his turf toe injury that kept him out the last two games (he didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday), and he was sorely missed in run D and in pass defense in the middle of the field. This is a big game for LB Ivan Pace, the defensive line led by Harrison Phillips and Jerry Tillery, and the Vikings’ safeties to play the run effectively, along with Cashman, if he’s able to go.
5. Take advantage of a banged-up Colts offensive line in run D and to pressure Flacco and cover a good group of WRs if they’re healthy: the Colts’ injury report on Wednesday had three starting O-linemen listed as not practicing—left tackle Bernhard Raimann (who is in concussion protocol), center Ryan Kelly (calf/knee) and right tackle Braden Smith (knee). Kelly and Smith returned to practice on Thursday.
The Colts have been solid this season in pass protection (15 sacks allowed, seventh-fewest), but if these players are out or playing through injuries, it will give the Vikings pass rushers led by Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Pat Jones (who each have five sacks thus far) a chance to get after Flacco (who followed the Rams game with no sacks and only two QB hits on Matthew Stafford).
The Colts’ starting WRs, Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, are good receivers, but they’re also nursing injuries, so we’ll see how effective they are on Sunday night. The Vikings corners must tighten up in coverage after a couple of lackluster weeks against Stafford (and Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua) and Jared Goff (throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond).
6. Have fewer penalties than the Colts: this was a killer against the Rams, with nine penalties, including five on defense, on third down, to extend drives, and three more pre-snap penalties on offense. The Colts also had nine penalties in Houston, so the Vikings crowd could make an impact as they’ve been doing in previous games.
7. Win the special teams battle: Colts kicker Matt Gay is 12 for 14 on field goals but only 1 for 3 from 50+. Will Reichard is perfect this season (34 for 34 on all kicks, including 4 for 4 on 50+ field goals). Indy’s Anthony Gould is a dangerous kickoff and punt returner who must be contained. And again—no penalties on special teams will help the Vikings cause.
Prediction:
This is a big game for both teams in the thick of the playoff race in each conference. The 5-2 Vikings are in a wild card spot after seven games but need a win to stay in the NFC North race and improve their overall playoff chances. Houston swept the Colts and is two games back of the Texans in the AFC South, plus the sweep. So, Indy has to focus on the AFC Wildcard race, where they are currently a half-game out of a playoff spot.
I look for both teams to move the ball on offense, but the Vikings have the better defense, and the home crowd will help by creating some false starts for a penalty-prone Colts team. The Vikings also are better rested after their mini-bye. I think it will be a big day for Darnold, Jones, Jefferson, and the Vikings offense while the defense forces a couple of turnovers and makes enough stops so the Purple will win 30-27 on a late Will Reichard field goal.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 9:
1. The game of the week in the NFL is the NFC North battle for first place, with the Lions taking on the Packers at Lambeau. The two teams split their series last season, and both teams won on the road. Jordan Love is battling a groin injury and was limited in Thursday’s practice. The Packers need him to win this game over a hot Lions team that has won five straight while the Pack is on a four-game roll since the Vikings beat them in Week 4.
I think Detroit is the best team in the league at this juncture. Jared Goff is on a hot streak, and I see the Lions getting this big road win over Love or Malik Willis if he has to step in.
2. The Bears have to quickly get over the disastrous Hail Mary loss in Washington with a tough test in Arizona against a Cardinals team that is tied for the NFC West lead at 4-4 and has won three of their last four (including a one-point thriller at Miami last week). I’ll pick Kyler Murray and the Cards in a close one.
3. The Kirk Cousins vs. Mike Zimmer game takes place in Atlanta, where Cousins is playing well. The Falcons have swept the Buccaneers to take control of the NFC South. Zimmer’s D is in rough shape in pass defense without the injured Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to pressure Cousins, and their run D ranks last in the league. This is a game where Cousins and star back Bijan Robinson will lead the way to victory.
4. The Rams will try to carry the momentum from their win over the Vikings into Seattle, and I think they’ll beat the inconsistent Seahawks, who were clobbered at home 31-10 by Buffalo last week. Denver at Baltimore is a matchup of 5-3 teams that the Ravens should win at home if they can get their last-ranked pass defense to play better against rookie QB Bo Nix. And Kansas City will stay unbeaten on Monday night with a win over Tampa Bay.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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