Oct 30, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Camryn Bynum (24) walks off the field after the game against the Arizona Cardinals at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.
The Vikings at Giants game on Sunday is not getting a lot of attention nationally compared to several prime-time matchups (two of which involve NFC North teams—Green Bay vs. Philadelphia in Brazil on Friday night and the L.A. Rams at Detroit in the Sunday night opener).
However, the Vikings-Giants game will be among the most exciting on opening weekend. The wise guys in Vegas believe it should be a close game since the Vikings’ spread by 1 ½ points is the smallest of the 16 games in Week 1.
Here are my keys to a much-needed opening day victory for the Vikings, especially considering the tough early schedule with a challenging six-game stretch that includes four 2023 playoff teams—the 49ers, Texans, Packers, and Lions–plus the G-Men and the Jets with a now-healthy Aaron Rodgers in London in Week 5.
Here are my keys to a Vikings victory in the Meadowlands:
1. Run the ball well—The Vikings have emphasized the running game throughout the offseason and training camp as they know a strong run game will help take the pressure off new QB Sam Darnold. Aaron Jones is amped up for a big season to stick it to his old team in Green Bay. Jones is a big upgrade—if he stays healthy—over Alexander Mattison. He and Ty Chandler make a potential solid duo. A strong running game against the Giants’ run D that ranked 29th last season will set up the play action passing game.
2. Pass protect for Darnold vs. the Giants stout pass rushers—Coach Kevin O’Connell emphasized the strength of the Giants front seven, especially the trio of All-Pro DT Dexter Lawrence, DE Brian Burns, and edge Kayvon Thibodeaux.
The pressure is on the entire Vikings O-line to give Darnold time to throw to his excellent WR corps and to Jones and Chandler out of the backfield. The matchups to watch are Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill vs. Burns and Thibodeaux and the Vikings interior linemen—especially center Garrett Bradbury but also guards Blake Brandel and Ed Ingram trying to contain Lawrence.
3. Get the ball to Justin Jefferson—no matter how much they want to run the ball, it’s a cardinal sin if the Vikings don’t target the NFL’s highest-paid non-QB at least 10 times in every game. Jordan Addison is expected back from his ankle injury, and he and Jefferson are among the league’s top duos. If Jalen Nailor is out with a sprained ankle, that would be unfortunate for the Purple after his excellent training camp. Then Trishton Jackson and Brandon Powell will have to step up.
4. Stop the run, including Jones’ scrambles—it’s a good thing for the Vikings that elite back Saquon Barkley is now in Philly. Devin Singletary and Eric Gray are good backs but not in Barkley’s class. Like the Vikings, the Giants will want to run it well to slow down the pass rush and set up play action.
It will be interesting to see how willing Jones is to scramble and run in Week 1 after his ACL injury that limited him to six games last season. He was a big running threat in his best year of 2022 with 708 rushing yards and seven TDs. He hurt the Vikings in the 2022 wild card game with 78 yards on the ground along with his 301 passing yards (against a much less aggressive Minnesota D prior to Brian Flores’ arrival the next year).
Inside linebackers Ivan Pace and Blake Cashman will have to watch for Jones taking off.
5. Pressure Jones into sacks and turnovers—the Giants made some moves in free agency to try to upgrade their awful O-line, which allowed a league-high 85 sacks. We’ll see if that unit improves, but I think the Vikings’ pass rushers, led by edge players Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and first-rounder Dallas Turner, could have a big game.
Flores is sure to throw plenty of blitzes at Jones (with Josh Metellus, Harrison Smith, Pace, and Cashman) to try and confuse the blockers and see if Jones gets antsy and throws a few balls up for grabs.
6. New corners cover well and no coverage busts—among the 10 new Vikings starters are corners Stephon Gilmore (who has had a tremendous career, and I thought it was a great signing, but he turns 34 in two weeks) and Shaq Griffin, who missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury. Are these guys ready to cover sixth overall pick Malik Nabers and some other good WRs- Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and speedy Jalin Hyatt?
It’s a concern as to how well coordinated in coverage the corners and safety trio (Smith, Metellus, and Cam Bynum) will be in Week 1 so there are no big coverage busts. At least there’s plenty of experience among the Vikings corners, including Byron Murphy, who will sometimes move to the slot. I like the Vikings’ secondary much better with Akayleb Evans in a backup role rather than starting.
7. Reichard keeps kicking great—rookie sixth-round kicker Will Reichard won the job with his excellent kicking in training camp and preseason games. Now the games count, and he has to get it done, but I have confidence in him since he kicked in so many big games in front of huge crowds at Alabama. Ryan Wright must also punt as well as he did in 2022, which was better than last season.
8. Kick return and cover units perform well—the new kickoff rule that encourages returns (or offenses start at the 30 instead of the 25 on touchbacks) will make for a more exciting play on most kickoffs. Chandler will handle these duties for the Vikings after Kene Nwangwu, which was a somewhat surprising cut, but Chandler has the speed and moves to do the job well (and he has experience from his rookie year and in college).
The Vikings’ coverage units were up and down in preseason games, and they will need to perform consistently well to prevent big returns that can be game-changers.
9. Limit penalties, win the turnover battle, and handle the crowd noise—it’s always a challenge for teams to limit their penalties in the first couple of games, as the starters played only a few snaps in preseason games.
One of the league’s worst turnover differentials early last season was a big reason the Vikings started out 0-3. Darnold has thrown far too many interceptions in his career and must protect the football.
O’Connell also discussed the importance of handling crowd noise on the road. Getting an early lead always helps.
Prediction:
The G-Men are coming off a 6-11 disastrous season, during which their bad offensive line was the main culprit, and the coaching staff was disharmony. The Giants’ O-line still could be shaky, especially early on, and Jones may need a few weeks to feel comfortable and willing to run on his repaired knee.
First-round pick Nabers will be a handful for the Vikings’ corners, but no Saquon Barkley helps the Vikings. Jones and Jefferson will have big games, with Addison and Chandler contributing. Darnold will play well enough in his return to New York, and the Vikings’ pass rushers, led by Greenard and Turner, will have a big day.
Vikings win 26-23 on a late Reichard field goal.
Around the NFL Week 1 picks:
Including the Baltimore at Kansas City opener on Thursday, it’s a terrific slate of opening weekend games. Here are six that I’m most interested in, and I’ll pick a winner:
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia in Brazil: A great opening matchup in a far-away venue. The Eagles are looking for QB Jalen Hurts to throw fewer interceptions this season and play up to his MVP runner-up form in 2022. The Eagles’ young corners will be tested by Packers QB Jordan Love who finished hot last season. I like the Packers in a close game.
Tennessee at Chicago: The much-ballyhooed debut of first-round pick Caleb Williams is the big story here. The Bears have an improved roster (with a fine WR trio—Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and first-rounder Rome Odunze) and could be playoff contenders if Williams comes through. Will Levis directs the Titans, who could pull an upset here, but I like the Bears at home.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta: This is a fascinating quarterback matchup. Kirk Cousins’s debut as Falcons quarterback is of interest here and, of course, in Atlanta, where he’s expected to lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Russell Wilson takes over in Pittsburgh, with Justin Fields ready to jump in if needed. Both teams have solid defenses. I think Atlanta wins by a field goal.
Dallas at Cleveland: The Cowboys have had a messy offseason and preseason contract-wise. QB Dak Prescott and Coach Mike McCarthy are in their last year under contract. The Browns’ top-ranked defense was thrashed by Houston last postseason, and Deshaun Watson has not lived up to his big contract and trade costs. In a close game, I’m picking Dallas with DE Micah Parsons all over Watson.
L.A. Rams at Detroit: these teams met in the wild-card round last postseason, with the Lions and Jared Goff winning 24-23 over Goff’s former team led by ex-Lions QB Matthew Stafford. The Lions are my NFC Super Bowl pick, and I think their prolific offense prevails over a Rams team without the retired Aaron Donald.
N.Y. Jets at San Francisco: Aaron Rodgers returns from his Achilles injury that ended his 2023 season after four plays. He has good skill players to support him, but the O-line has been revamped and could be a problem again this season. The Jets have an excellent defense to challenge the 49ers’ explosive offense led by last year’s passer rating leader Brock Purdy.
The 49ers had too much contract drama this year with WR Brandon Aiyuk and OT Trent Williams, who signed new deals in the past week. The 49ers win this opener at home before heading to Minnesota on a short week to face the Vikings.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl.