Keys to Vikings Beating Packers for Season Sweep
The border battle between the Vikings and the Packers has been ongoing for 64 years. Rarely has a game between these division rivals been of as much significance as Sunday’s meeting at U.S. Bank Stadium.
There were two Wildcard playoff games between the teams, won in 2004 by the Vikings and 2012 by the Packers. In the 2015 regular season finale, the Vikings beat the Packers to win the NFC North. The Brett Favre contests playing for the Vikings against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were must-see games in 2009 when the Vikings swept, and in 2010, the Packers returned the favor.
Keys to Vikings Beating Packers for Season Sweep
My personal favorite in the series was our 37-24 Monday night win on October 5, 1998, during my last season as Vikings GM. Randy Moss caught five passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns from Randall Cunningham in this victory at Lambeau, which ended the Packers’ 18-game home winning streak, took us to 5-0, and was the catalyst for our 15-1 season.
This Sunday marks the first meeting, with both teams having 11-plus wins. It’s a critical game for both teams. A Vikings victory would mean the NFC North title and No. 1 NFC seed is on the line next week in Detroit. The Packers can claim the fifth seed and drop the Vikings to sixth with wins this week and next week in Chicago, coupled with a Vikings loss at Detroit.
This is a rematch of the memorable Week 4 game at Lambeau, in which the Vikings rode three Sam Darnold touchdown passes to a 28-0 second-quarter lead before Jordan Love rallied the Packers with three fourth-quarter touchdown passes. Will Reichard’s 33-yard field goal with 6:50 left was the eventual difference in the Vikings’ 31-29 victory. This was a statement win on the road against a top team in the division, improving their tremendous early start to 4-0.
Will the Vikings take advantage of the Packers coming to Minnesota on a short week after their 34-0 Monday night win over the Saints and a loud home crowd with the later 3:25 pm start?
Here are my keys to the Vikings gaining a season sweep that hasn’t happened in the series since Green Bay did it in 2019 (with Vikings last sweep in the 2017 season):
1. Win the rushing battle: it’s the Vikings’ No. 2-ranked run defense against the Packers’ No. 4 rushing attack. The Vikings outrushed the Pack 120-86 in the earlier meeting. Aaron Jones ran 22 times for 93 yards (4.3 average) and had four catches for 46 yards.
Josh Jacobs is the league’s fourth-leading rusher with 1,216 yards. He had only nine carries for 51 yards (5.7 average) last time as Love wound up throwing 54 passes after the Packers fell so far behind.
After shaky games against Arizona and Atlanta with some improvement against Chicago, the Vikings run D was better in Seattle (only 59 yards allowed) and should be stronger with the expected return from injuries by Harrison Smith and Ivan Pace.
2. Protect Darnold and capitalize if two of Green Bay’s best defenders — Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander and leading tackler Quay Walker — either miss the game or are slowed by injuries. Alexander has missed the last four games with a knee injury but has returned to practice on a limited basis this week. Walker missed the Monday night game with an ankle injury and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Safety Evan Williams, who plays a lot, also has missed practice (quad).
The Packers sacked Darnold twice and had only three quarterback hits in the last game (before Christian Darrisaw’s season-ending injury against the Rams). The Vikings’ pass protection is good at times but suspect overall, with 46 sacks allowed, ninth-most. Seattle had three sacks and seven quarterback hits on Darnold last week.
Green Bay enters the game with 43 sacks (sixth-most), so it will be a big challenge for the O-line, tight ends, and C.J. Ham to give Darnold time to throw to his great targets.
3. Darnold, Jefferson, and Addison stay hot: Darnold has 15 TD passes and only one interception in the last six games. He completed 20 of 28 for 275 yards and three TDs with one interception in the September game. Jefferson has had several big games against the Pack, with his best being an 11 catch, 184 yards, 2-TD game in the 2022 season opener in Minnesota with Alexander in the lineup but not following Jefferson every play.
In the earlier game this season, he had six catches for 85 yards (1 TD) with Alexander out, while Jordan Addison had three receptions for 72 yards, including a 29-yard TD grab on the opening drive.
Hockenson missed the earlier game this season while recovering from his ACL injury. The last time he faced the Packers in Green Bay was in October 2023. He had six catches for 88 yards and one touchdown.
4. Pressure Love like last time: he threw for 389 yards and four TDs but had three picks that helped the Vikings to their early lead. The Vikings only sacked Love once but had 10 QB hits and 12 passes defensed. But Green Bay’s pass protection has been excellent overall this season, with only 16 sacks allowed (second-fewest in the league).
The Packers’ Pro Bowl left guard, Elgton Jenkins, missed practice on Thursday due to a knee injury, which would be a problem for the Pack if he’s out or limited on Sunday.
The loud home crowd, which helps the defense, should greatly help the Vikings’ outstanding group of edge rushers led by Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. First-rounder Dallas Turner has come on strong down the stretch. The Vikings have 44 sacks, fifth-most, and are coming off a game with two sacks, eight quarterback hits, and plenty of pressure on Geno Smith that forced two picks.
5. Vikings DBs cover a bunch of good Green Bay receivers: Jayden Reed leads a deep receiving group. He has 52 catches for 803 yards and eight TDs and had a big game last time with seven receptions for 139 yards and one TD. Christian Watson is a deep threat (21.4-yard average). He left the Saints game early with a knee injury, but Packers coach Matt LaFleur says it’s just a bruise.
Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are other quality targets for Love, along with tight end Tucker Kraft (44 catches, 7 TDs) and Jacobs out of the backfield (35 catches).
If the Vikings can’t get heat on Love, it could spell big trouble for the secondary.
6. Loud crowd (with hopefully not too many Packer fans in the house) force several false starts as a key to the Vikings winning the penalty battle: penalties were a big factor in the win over the Seahawks last week, especially an offsides and facemask call leading directly to two Vikings TD passes from Darnold to Jefferson. I can see Jefferson and Addison drawing a couple of key pass interference calls in this game.
7. Will Reichard and Ryan Wright continue to out-kick the opposing kickers with no big returns: Reichard and Wright were terrific in Seattle’s difficult weather and field conditions. They need to stay strong at home. Brandon McManus is also kicking well for the Packers with only one field goal miss and is perfect on extra points.
Keenan Nixon is among the league leaders in kickoff returns (30.3-yard average). Reichard needs his kickoffs to be deep enough for no returns. And the Vikings have to protect well in both areas of the kicking game, as the Packers won their Week 11 game in Chicago on a blocked field goal, and the Vikings had a punt blocked by the Bears in the Week 15 game.
Prediction: The two teams are very evenly matched, and both will be highly motivated, with playoff positioning at stake. The Vikings have the advantage of being at home, while the Packers have to travel on a short week.
The status and possible level of play of Alexander and Walker are big factors for the Green Bay defense, as are Smith and Pace for the Vikings’ defense.
The Packers drilled the Vikings 33-10 in this same Week 17 in Minnesota last season, so they’re not going to be intimidated coming here, but that game was with Jaren Hall starting and playing an awful first half (67 passing yards and a pick) while Love was hot and led the Packers to a 23-3 halftime lead. Nick Mullens replaced Hall in the second half and was better, but he couldn’t rally the team.
Despite both teams ranking high in fewest points allowed (Vikings third, Packers sixth), I expect a high-scoring game as the Vikings have three straight games with 27 or more points while the Packers have scored 30 or more in five straight games (including four wins and a three-point loss at Detroit).
It’s hard for me to see the Vikings sweeping the Packers, and it’s also so hard to win nine straight games in the NFL, which will be the case for the Vikings with a victory. The Packers are a talented team that I see as dangerous in the postseason. In the final analysis, the Vikings can take advantage of potentially better health, the Packers’ short week, and the amped-up home crowd to win a close one, 31-27.
It just seems meant to be that there will be the grand finale in Detroit that would surely be flexed to Sunday night with so much at stake (which is also what makes me hesitant about picking the Vikings this week because everyone except the Green Bay faithful — including the league office and NBC — want that Minnesota at Detroit game to be for the division title and No. 1 NFC seed).
Around the NFL in Week 17:
1. Detroit at San Francisco: the Lions can win the division title with a win on Monday night in the Bay Area if the Vikings lose to the Packers on Sunday. If the Vikings win, it comes down to Week 18 at Detroit. If the Vikings win and the Lions lose in Week 17, the Purple can win the division and the No. 1 seed with a tie or victory in Detroit.
The 49ers are eliminated from the playoff race, but I think they’ll play hard on Monday night for pride and to make an impression on the team’s leadership and other teams watching. I expect Detroit to win, and the Vikings should hope for a physically exhausting game for the Lions. As with Green Bay this week, the Vikings will have the advantage of Detroit being on a short week next week and having the long flight back from the West Coast.
2. There were big wins on Christmas Day by Kansas City in Pittsburgh (to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed) and Baltimore behind dominant Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry performances and a great defensive game in Houston to take the lead in the AFC North.
Other important games affecting the playoff race in the NFC are Saturday night’s Cardinals at Rams game as L.A. closes in on the NFC West title and Atlanta at Washington on Sunday night. I see the Rams coasting over the now-eliminated Cardinals and the Commanders, led by soon-to-be Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (off his last-second TD pass to beat Philly), winning over the Falcons in Michael Penix Jr.’s first road start.
That would clinch a playoff berth for Washington and put the Bucs back in control of the NFC South if they handle Carolina in Tampa on Sunday. If I were the Vikings, I’d rather see Atlanta win their division as a possible first-round playoff opponent with a rookie quarterback than the Bucs with Baker Mayfield.
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Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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