Former Vikings GM Sizes up Week 1 at Giants
Opening day was always one of my favorite days on the NFL calendar during my front-office career. Sure, playoff games brought the most excitement, but the first regular season week and games were great. Training camp and preseason games were thankfully over, the team was mostly set after the final cut, and the intensity ramped up in practices and in the stadium on game day.
Former Vikings GM Sizes up Week 1 at Giants
That will be the case in the Meadowlands on Sunday when the Vikings and Giants meet in an important opener for both teams looking to jump-start a better 2024 than their losing seasons in 2023, much of which was injury-driven to their starting quarterbacks — Daniel Jones with his ACL tear for the G-Men and Kirk Cousins with his torn Achilles that ruined a promising season for the Vikings.
There are so many subplots and keys to a Vikings victory this week, which I will discuss further in my game preview story on Friday, including my prediction. For now, I’ll simplify it down to a couple of key points:
1. With a tough early schedule, a win Sunday would be huge and probably necessary for the Vikings who have three 2023 playoff teams up next: the defending NFC champion 49ers here, defending AFC South champion Houston here (with former Vikings stars Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs coming to town) and then a road test at Green Bay.
2. The Giants went 6-11 last season. QB Daniel Jones is back from his ACL tear, but star back Saquon Barkley is now in Philly. The G-Men were the league’s worst pass-protecting team last year, so a big key is whether the Vikings revamped pass rush, led by Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Dallas Turner, can pressure Jones to force sacks and turnovers.
3. The Vikings want to run it with lead back Aaron Jones and No. 2 back Ty Chandler going against last year’s 29th-ranked run D. If the Vikings can run it well this week, that will definitely help QB Sam Darnold in his first Vikings start. In any event, Darnold must target star receiver Justin Jefferson early and often, and if the run game is working, that sets up play-action shots down the field to Jefferson and Jordan Addison (who is back at practice on a limited basis with his sprained ankle).
4. It’s an early test for a talented Vikings team with 10 new starters—four on offense (Darnold, Jones, left guard Blake Brandel and I include third WR Jalen Nailor as a virtual starter), six on defense (OLBs Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, defensive lineman Jerry Tillery, ILB Blake Cashman, cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin (as the third CB who is a virtual starter) plus a new kicker in Will Reichard.
With so many new starters and other newcomers who are key rotating players, such as first-round OLB Dallas Turner, the coaches are under a lot of pressure to get the players in sync with the offensive and defensive schemes and with their new teammates. It’s quite the challenge for Coach Kevin O’Connell as he enters his third season at the helm and for his assistant coaches.
5. It will be fascinating to see if O’Connell can get Darnold to limit his turnovers, which have hurt him in the past, and have a career year with the best supporting cast he’s played with, led, of course, by Jefferson.
As I said, I’ll have more on this Vikings-Giants matchup on Friday. The Vikings hope the result is better for them than the last time these two teams met, the 2022 wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium, which the Giants won 31-24 over the 13-win Vikings. The game ended with Kirk Cousins throwing far short of the first-down marker to T.J. Hockenson on a fourth-down play.
Thoughts on the late Vikings cut of Jaren Hall and the signing of Brett Rypien and Ty Chandler as the kickoff returner:
Here’s another example of the waste of time and energy that preseason games are: Hall played very well in the finale at Philadelphia. It appeared to clinch his spot as the No. 3 quarterback, which it did until the Vikings signed Brett Rypien and waived Hall. O’Connell said the team hoped to sign Hall to the practice squad, but he opted to sign on to the Seahawks practice squad for a fresh start.
Rypien is a five-year vet with four career starts in Denver and at the Raiders (2-2 record and an unimpressive career passer rating of 59.9). This move tells me O’Connell was seeking another veteran option if Darnold falters or gets hurt and backup Nick Mullens turns into an interception machine as he did last season. And the coach apparently wasn’t sold on Hall, perhaps with visions of his awful Week 17 starting performance against the Packers last season (5 of 10 for 67 yards with one pick) which created a stronger impression than a great preseason game in Philly against a bunch of backups.
It’s still surprising that the Vikings cut a former second-team All-Pro kick returner, Kene Nwangwu, who looked good as a running back in the preseason. Chandler will handle the kickoff return duties under the new format against the Giants and has the speed and elusiveness to be effective. He has returning experience from his rookie season in 2022 (four kickoff returns with a decent 24.3-yard average, and he returned kicks in college at North Carolina). It will be interesting to see how Chandler does in this role and how teams strategize on the new kickoff rule.
Around the NFL Observations:
1. I’ll pick several games on Friday but for now, here’s my take on the Thursday night opener with Baltimore at Kansas City in a rematch of last season’s AFC title game won by the Chiefs 17-10 in Baltimore.
As I’ve often said, since the Chiefs won their second straight Super Bowl last February, I’m not picking against the Chiefs in big games such as this opener and any postseason games as long as Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are with the team.
Reid will certainly remind his team of how they were upset by the Lions in last season’s Week 1 game at Arrowhead, in large part due to key dropped passes by Kadarious Toney, who was recently cut. It’s a good time to face the Ravens, who are breaking in many new starters on both sides of the ball. With several new offensive line starters, I expect Chiefs All-Pro DT Chris Jones to dominate and force Lamar Jackson into a couple of turnovers.
I expect Kansas City to win their ninth straight AFC West title, earn home-field advantage, beat the Bengals in the AFC Championship (if Joe Burrow stays healthy), and then win the Super Bowl over Detroit next February.
Yes, I predict the Lions’ prolific offense (with five Pro Bowlers last season and 2022 Pro Bowl QB Jared Goff at the helm) and improved defense will beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship after they lost a close game in last season’s title game at San Francisco.
I think the 49ers have had too much contract drama this year with WR Brandon Aiyuk and OT Trent Williams (both have now been resolved but the players did not participate in training camp). The Niners also have several key players who have had injury issues in the past which could become an issue including Williams, Pro Bowl QB Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel, and star back (and last year’s Offensive Player of the Year) Christian McCaffrey who has played in every game in only one of his previous six seasons.
This is the Lions’ year until they run into Mahomes, Reid, Jones, and Company at the Super Bowl.
T.J. Hockenson’s Return Comes into Focus
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl.
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