Former Vikings GM Predicts Vikings-Jets
The unbeaten Vikings head to London, where they are also unbeaten (3-0), to face the New York Jets, who are struggling on offense but have one of the league’s top defenses.
Former Vikings GM Predicts Vikings-Jets
It’s always a logistical challenge to play a game overseas, which I know well from my early years with the Vikings, when as director of team operations, I coordinated four international trips (to London, Sweden, Tokyo, and Berlin). Those were preseason games, but they were very difficult road trips to navigate, working with stadiums, hotels, practice facilities, meals, and air and ground travel.
The more recent Vikings have figured out how to manage the travel and time change with their past success, including a memorable 28-25 victory over the Saints in Week 4 of the 13-win 2022 season. That game ended with Saints kicker Wil Lutz’s double-doink missed field goal from 61 yards.
A Vikings win would amazingly get them to 5-0 going into the bye week with the opportunity for any injured players to heal up before the huge home game on October 20 against the defending NFC North champion Lions. By then, Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson should be back in the lineup (his practice window from PUP is opening this week).
He’ll be another weapon for Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, who was just named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for September after his first four games with a 118.9 passer rating and 11 TD passes, both of which lead the league. It’s unlikely Hockenson will play in the Jets game, but he should be back to face Detroit.
The Jets are 2-2 after losing convincingly to the 49ers, beating the lowly Titans and Patriots, and having a disappointing home loss to the Broncos last Sunday when the defense held Denver QB Bo Nix to 60 yards passing, but the Jets offense had a terrible day with star running back Breece Hall held to 4 yards rushing on 10 carries and Rodgers getting sacked five times and hit 14 times with his offensive line having an awful game (including five false start penalties).
The pressure is on the Jets and their Coach, Robert Saleh. Owner Woody Johnson and the Jets fan base expect them to be a playoff team and contend for the AFC East title, with four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers back after his Achilles injury last season.
Here are my keys to a Vikings victory over the Jets in London:
1. Follow the formula that has worked the first four games—outrush the opposition and either have fewer turnovers or be even in that critical category.
The Vikings have the league’s No. 14 rushing attack, led by strong play from the offensive line, tight ends, and wide receivers blocking for excellent backs Aaron Jones (321 rushing yards, 8th ranked) and Ty Chandler.
The Jets have the second-ranked overall defense and No. 2 pass defense, but their run defense ranks 20th, so it’s obvious the Vikings will want to run the ball to set up play-action passes to their receivers. DT Quinnen Williams is a two-time Pro Bowler who must be blocked in the run game along with his brother, inside linebacker Quincy Williams (who leads the team in tackles with 31).
The Vikings are second in the league with 10 takeaways and have a plus-3 turnover ratio. The Jets have only four takeaways, and they have a plus-1 ratio.
2. Pass protect for Darnold: Edge Will McDonald has five sacks and leads the Jets pass rush, which has 14 sacks to rank fifth. He’s the latest challenge for the Vikings’ excellent OTs Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, who have done well against tough edge rushers the first four games.
3. Give Jefferson enough targets, but look for Addison and Nailor to make big plays downfield: Justin Jefferson vs. Jets All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner is a must-see matchup of the NFL’s best players at their respective positions. They last met when the Vikings beat the Jets 27-22 in 2022, which was Gardner’s rookie season. Jefferson was held to seven catches for 45 yards in that game, but he did catch the winning 10-yard TD pass.
The Jets’ other corners—D.J. Reed and Michael Carter—are fine players, but Addison is coming off a big game against the Packers, and Nailor has been productive all season as the third receiver (or No. 2 when Addison was out with his sprained ankle).
4. Defense stop the run and makes the Jets’ offense one-dimensional: The Broncos held the Jets to 64 rushing yards last week, including stuffing Hall. Denver has the 12th-ranked run defense, and the Vikings are No. 2, so they should be able to stop the run, too.
5. Flores and his D continue to rattle the quarterback and force sacks. The Vikings should easily win this game if they can get after Rodgers the way the Broncos did. And why not when the Vikings lead the league with 17 sacks? It should be a field day for the Vikings pass rushers, including blitzing Rodgers, which the Broncos were able to do.
But Rodgers does not want to get hit like he was last week, so he’ll try to get the ball out quickly with a lot of wide receiver screens and short passes to his backs, tight end, and a good group of WRs that has not put up big numbers. Their top wide receiver—2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson—has only 20 catches for 191 yards and one TD. Ex-Viking Tyler Conklin is a quality tight end who hasn’t been targeted enough so far.
6. Cornerbacks cover Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mike Williams: Williams hurt the Vikings when he was a Charger last season and caught seven passes for 121 yards and one TD, but that was against a less talented cornerback group that did not have Stephon Gilmore or Shaq Griffin.
7. Have fewer penalties than the undisciplined Jets, who had 13 penalties for 90 yards, including five false starts, which contributed to their loss last week.
8. Win the special teams battle: this was a key last week when kicker Will Reichard made all five of his kicks (he’s now a perfect 6 for 6 on field goals and 14 for 14 on extra points) while Packers kicker Brayden Narveson missed field goal attempts of 37 and 49 yards. Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein was 5 for 5 against the Vikings two years ago, but that was indoors. He’s 5 for 7 this year, with one miss from 40-49 and one from over 50.
The Vikings’ coverage units have played well and need to contain a good returner in Xavier Gipson (best if Reichard doesn’t give him a chance on kickoffs). And Brandon Powell needs to stay in the game and return punts after last week’s muffed punt by Nailor (when Powell was hurt but later returned).
Prediction:
I think the Vikings will control the Jets’ run game and pressure Rodgers to the tune of four sacks and a lot of dump-off passes that Blake Cashman and returning starter Ivan Pace or his replacement Kamu Grugier-Hill will handle.
Jones and Chandler will combine for 120 rushing yards, and Darnold will make enough plays for his receivers while not turning it over.
These are two of the top five teams in scoring defense (Vikings 4th, Jets 5th), so I expect a low-scoring game that the Vikings will win 20-17.
Around the NFL Week 5 picks:
1. In other games involving NFC North teams, 2-2 Green Bay is at the 1-3 Rams, and I think the Packers and Jordan Love will ride the momentum from their strong fourth quarter last week against the Vikings to a victory in L.A.
The 2-2 Bears should handle the Panthers in Chicago. 3-1 Detroit is on its bye week before a big game at Dallas on October 13 in advance of the showdown with the Vikings. The Lions’ offense perked up in their 42-29 Monday night win over the previously unbeaten Seahawks, but their pass defense looked shaky (383 yards allowed, which is good news for Darnold, Jefferson, and Company).
2. In other interesting games, Baltimore seems to have gotten things back together with solid wins over Dallas and Buffalo, and I’m picking them to win in a divisional battle at Cincinnati. Kansas City has receiver issues after losing Rashee Rice to a possible ACL tear, but I still like them to move to 5-0 with a home win over the Saints on Monday night.
I like the Steelers to beat the Cowboys in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. Dallas is likely to be without their best defensive player, Micah Parsons (high ankle sprain), and another top defender, DeMarcus Lawrence, who is now on IR with a Lisfrance injury.
Ex-Viking and ex-Bill diva receiver Stefon Diggs faces Buffalo in Houston, and I think the result will be better for Diggs and the Texans than the Week 3 loss in Minnesota.
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Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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