Former Vikings GM Predicts Vikings-49ers
The Vikings take a significant step up in class of the opposition when they host the defending NFC champion 49ers coming off their impressive 32-19 Monday night win over the Jets.
Coach Kyle Shanahan will surely remind his team of their 22-17 upset loss in Week 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium last season when Kirk Cousins had perhaps the best game of his six years in Minnesota. He threw for 378 yards and two TDs (with no Justin Jefferson), including a 60-yard touchdown pass at the end of the first half when Jordan Addison stole the ball from 49ers Pro Bowl corner Charvarius Ward.
Former Vikings GM Predicts Vikings-49ers
Addison had seven receptions for 123 yards and two TDs. T.J. Hockenson had 11 catches for 86 yards, but he’s out for at least three more games coming off his ACL injury, and Addison may be missing this week with an ankle sprain.
Cam Bynum had two interceptions off Brock Purdy, including the game-clincher with 34 seconds left.
This will be a huge test for Sam Darnold after his tremendous initial Vikings start in the opening win over the Giants. The Vikings defense also faces a big test against the potent 49ers attack. Christian McCaffrey missed the season opener with a calf and Achilles injury, but undrafted third-year back Jordan Mason stepped in and had a career day with 147 rushing yards and one TD.
Here are my keys to a Vikings victory in the home opener on Sunday:
1. Match physicality with 49ers—Kevin O’Connell, Brian Flores, and Darnold all talked this week about the 49ers being a very physical team that the Vikings must meet with similar force in the trenches on both sides of the ball and all over the field.
2. Run the ball well—It was a nice start for the Vikings against the Giants who were not good in run D last season (29th). The Vikings had 111 yards on the ground with Aaron Jones looking great (94 yards rushing on 14 carries, 6.7 average). Ty Chandler needs to study Jones’ excellent vision on cutting back or taking it outside as Jones did on the 3-yard TD run in the first quarter. Chandler was good in the passing game (3 catches, 25 yards) but was held to 17 yards rushing on eight carries and made a poor decision to bounce it outside in the red zone, resulting in a loss.
The 49ers are a much better run D than the Giants. They ranked third in 2023 and allowed only 68 yards rushing (3.6-yard average) against the Jets. Fred Warner is the best inside linebacker in the NFL and Javon Hargrave is a handful up front.
The Vikings’ offensive line must be more productive than last year’s matchup when the 49ers held the Vikings to 74 yards on the ground (3.5 average). A strong running game will set up the play-action passes, as happened on the 44-yarder to Jefferson on Sunday. If Darnold throws for as many yards as Cousins did in last year’s victory, no one will care how many rush yards there are if the Purple wins the game.
3. Pass protect for Darnold vs. the 49ers’ elite pass rushers—Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw played great against the Giants’ excellent edge rushers, and now they face one of the league’s best—Nick Bosa—and another fine DE in Leonard Floyd. The interior O-linemen will tangle with Hargrave. The 49ers ranked seventh in sacks last season but only sacked Aaron Rodgers once on Monday and did not sack Cousins in last year’s game. Darnold must play smart and throw it away if necessary.
4. Get more balls to Justin Jefferson & Jalen Nailor be ready to step up—the Vikings won big vs. the Giants, with Jefferson only being targeted six times and catching just four balls for 59 yards and one TD. In a game where it likely will be harder to run and against a 49ers pass defense that allowed 333 passing yards by Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl (but that was Mahomes of course), Darnold will likely be forced to throw more than 24 times and Jefferson must be a bigger factor with at least 10 targets.
Nailor had only one catch last week but it was a big one—a 21-yard TD on the fake screen and go route by “Speedy” Nailor. Even if Addison plays on Sunday (which is very questionable), Nailor will have to be ready to play more snaps and be a bigger part of the passing game when the 49ers double Jefferson.
If Addison is out, Trishton Jackson, Brandon Powell, or Trent Sherfield will have to step up as the third receiver.
O’Connell also will look for his tight ends to be targeted often after Hockenson’s big game against the Niners last time.
I think the Vikings have to attack the 49ers corners, especially Deommodore Lenoir, but still take shots at Ward, who will likely shadow Jefferson.
5. Win the turnover battle
The Vikings overcame the early fumble last week and finished even with two giveaways and two takeaways. The 49ers were plus two with a great strip by Warner on Breece Hall and a pick on a deflection. A key to the Vikings’ win over the 49ers last season was winning the turnover battle (plus 2), with Bynum’s interceptions being huge plays.
6. Stop the run
San Francisco wants to run McCaffrey and/or Mason along with the multi-talented Deebo Samuel a lot to set up their passing game. The Vikings did a fine job in limiting the Giants to 74 yards, and the Purple held McCaffrey to only 45 yards rushing on 15 carries last time (Samuel was out with an injury, and All-Pro left tackle and tremendous run blocker Trent Williams also was out, which certainly helped Minnesota’s cause). Harrison Phillips (who just got a nice extension), Jerry Tillery, and Jonathan Bullard along with backers Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace, and the rest of the D have to play well against the run.
Purdy is also capable of running for first downs, so he must be contained, as inside backers Cashman, Ivan Pace, and Company did in holding Jones to 15 rushing yards.
Whichever team runs the ball better has a great chance to emerge victorious in this matchup.
7. Pressure and confuse Purdy with crowd noise a factor—Flores’ defense is so much fun to watch but not fun to play against as Daniel Jones saw last week with 12 QB hits and five sacks on him.
Purdy is usually poised, but the Vikings pressured him into big mistakes last year, and we’ll see if they can do it again with better overall personnel on defense. Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, Dallas Turner, Pat Jones, and Phillips up front, blitzing linebackers and safeties such as Josh Metellus—Flores will be unleashing them, and Purdy will try to get the ball out quick with crowd noise from a sure-to-be amped-up home crowd after the opening win, helping the rushers get a good jump on the 49ers’ O-linemen.
8. New corners cover well and no coverage busts—Stephon Gilmore, Byron Murphy, and Shaq Griffin were not tested much in the Giants game with Jones under so much pressure. I think Kyle Shanahan will have the ball coming out quicker with lots of bubble screens and quick slants to All-Pro TE George Kittle and the excellent WRs (Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings, who had five catches for 64 yards as the third receiver against the Jets).
Based on their performance this week and against Houston’s dynamic WR trio next week, we’ll know more about whether the Vikings’ cornerback group is better this year.
Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum, and Josh Metellus (when he’s not blitzing) will have their hands full with Kittle and must contain him.
9. Win the special teams battle with Reichard tested more—Rookie kicker Will Reichard did not have a field goal attempt against the Giants but was 4 for 4 on extra points. It will be surprising if he doesn’t have a much bigger role with several field goal attempts this week. 49ers kicker Jake Moody comes in hot after going 6 for 6 on Monday night, but he may have bad memories from missing a 40-yarder in last year’s game (he did convert from 55 yards).
Ryan Wright must punt well (he was fine last week, other than one shorter punt). The coverage units must hold up, and Jay Ward can’t hold on punt returns as he did in New York/New Jersey. The much-ballyhooed new kickoff rule still resulted in a bunch of touchbacks last week, and that could well continue.
10. Cut down on penalties
O’Connell was not happy with the team’s seven penalties for 63 yards in the opener (but the Giants were worse, with nine penalties for 95 yards, including a key pass interference on the Vikings’ first TD drive).
It’s typical of the early season when starters have hardly played in preseason, but it can ruin a game for a team, so the Vikings must be wary in this area.
Prediction:
I don’t see Darnold having the monster game that Cousins did in the upset last season. I think the Vikings will move the ball and succeed in the passing game, but Purdy will probably not make the mistakes he did last time.
It’s a nice advantage for the Vikings that the 49ers are traveling on a short week after playing on Monday night. But they won’t have a letdown game after the Vikings beat them here last year. I expect a close and exciting game in which San Francisco will win by a field goal, but a Vikings upset wouldn’t surprise me. The formula for making that happen is to outrush the Niners, make enough plays in the passing game, get after Purdy, and force turnovers.
I predict San Francisco wins 27-24 in an entertaining home opener that ends sadly for the Purple.
Around the NFL Week 2 picks:
It’s another exciting week with a lot of intriguing matchups besides Vikings-49ers:
1. Tampa Bay at Detroit—Baker Mayfield had a terrific game against Washington and played well in the close divisional playoff loss at Detroit last season. The Lions didn’t play great in beating the Rams, but I like them at home in this matchup and expect their prolific offense to get more untracked this week.
2. Indianapolis at Green Bay—trouble for the Pack with starting Malik Willis after Jordan Love’s MCL injury. The Colts almost beat the Texans last week, and I think Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will play well while the Colts’ defense shuts down Willis and the offense as long as they can contain Josh Jacobs in the run game. Give me the Colts.
3. Chicago at Houston (Sunday night)—what to make of the dismal debut of Caleb Williams with only 93 passing yards? Da Bears were lucky to beat a bad Tennessee team last week and needed a Pick 6 and blocked punt return for a TD to do it. Not going to happen against the Texans led by C.J. Stroud in their home opener. Danielle Hunter didn’t get a sack last week, but that will change in Week 2.
4. New Orleans at Dallas—The Saints put up 47 points on the lousy Panthers, but that won’t happen against Mike Zimmer’s fierce Cowboys D that hammered the Browns. Dallas wins this game in its home opener, and it wants to give its fans a better performance than its last home game, the 2023 wild card beatdown by the Packers.
5. Cincinnati at Kansas City—the Bengals were the biggest disappointment in Week 1 as they were beat up in the trenches by the Patriots (outrushed 170-70 with Joe Burrow held to 164 passing yards). The Bengals have played the Chiefs as tough as anyone in recent years, but not this time, with Tee Higgins likely missing another game (hamstring). Mahomes and Company move to 2-0.
6. Atlanta at Philadelphia (Monday night)—Cousins had a dreadful debut last week with only 155 passing yards and two costly picks in the home loss to the Steelers. He’ll play better this week but not good enough to win in one of the toughest road venues in the league unless Jalen Hurts throws a bunch of interceptions (he had two last week in the win over the Packers in Brazil).
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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