Oct 4, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) signals after making a reception against the Houston Texans for a first down during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports.
It’s reunion Sunday when the Vikings host the Houston Texans in a matchup of unbeaten teams.
Each team has several former players from the other side: former Vikings stars Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs, along with Kris Boyd and Cam Akers, come to town for the Texans. The Vikings have ex-Texans Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, and Shaq Griffin as new starters on the team’s defense, which has allowed only 23 points in the first two games, third-fewest in the league.
It’s also a fascinating quarterback matchup of last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud, for Houston and Sam Darnold for the Vikings. They represent a tale of two QB journeys—with Stroud; it’s the rare case of a rookie QB in 2023 being a Pro Bowler out of the gate as he played great and led the Texans to the AFC South title and a playoff win over the Browns. He’s continued his excellent play in the opening two games—wins at Indianapolis 29-27 followed by a 19-13 Sunday night home victory over the Bears.
Darnold is the opposite case—a seven-year vet who was a bust as the third overall pick of the Jets and is on his fourth team but has the best supporting cast he’s had as a starter and is flourishing so far this season.
Darnold ranks fifth in the league with a 111.8 passer rating, while Stroud is right behind him (sixth with a 104.9 rating). Both QBs have solid offensive lines and excellent skill position players to support them, although injuries are a factor this week with the Vikings possibly missing Jordan Addison (ankle) for the second straight week, but Justin Jefferson appears on track to play after his quad contusion sustained in the 49er game. And Texans top receiver Nico Collins is on the injury list (hip/foot) along with several other starters, including top back Joe Mixon (ankle).
Both teams will want to run it well to balance their offenses in a game that features the NFL’s two leading teams in sacks—Minnesota with 11 and Houston with nine.
Here are my keys to a Vikings victory for an unexpected 3-0 start:
1. Continue to run the ball well—The Vikings have made a nice jump from ranking 29th last season to 14th in rushing yards through two games. The 146 rushing yards were very impressive against a tough 49ers D, as the Vikings matched the Niners’ physicality in running it so well. Ty Chandler had a terrific game with 82 yards on 10 carries. He is more 1b to Aaron Jones 1a as opposed to a backup.
Left guard Blake Brandel is one of the keys to the improvement in the run game, along with bringing in Jones to pair with Chandler. Brandel is bigger and more physical than last year’s starter at left guard—Dalton Risner, who will be a great backup when he comes off IR and then can step in at right guard for Ed Ingram if he struggles.
The Vikings had only 25:12 in time of possession in the 49er game, and they want to control the clock in this game and keep Stroud and Houston’s ninth-ranked offense on the sidelines as much as possible.
Running it well will also set up play action, as was the case with the two TD passes Darnold threw last week—the 97-yarder to Jefferson and the 10-yarder to Jalen Nailor. It won’t be easy as the Texans rank seventh in run D, but O’Connell needs to stay patient with calling runs as he’s done so well this season.
2. Pass protect for Darnold vs. the Texans’ elite pass rushers—the Texans sacked Caleb Williams seven times and hit him 11 times in their Sunday night win, but the Vikings offensive line is much better than how the Bears’ O-line has played so far.
It’s the same story as the last two weeks for Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw, who played well against the Giants and 49ers’ excellent edge rushers. Now, they face another stout duo—Hunter and last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, Will Anderson, who both have 1.5 sacks so far. It will be fun to watch Hunter against his ex-teammates, as they all know each other so well from competing in Vikings practices for many years.
Ingram and Brandel, along with center Garrett Bradbury, will have their hands full with DTs Mario Edwards and Folorunso Fatukasi, who already have three sacks between them (two by Edwards).
The screen game that Jones and Chandler are both effective in can also be a big help in slowing down the pass rush. Darnold must continue to play well and throw it away if necessary (the interception last week was a great play by Fred Warner but an unnecessary risk at that point when the Vikings were rolling on the ground; however, to his credit, that was Darnold’s only mistake in an otherwise great performance).
3. Jefferson may get some single coverage from his ex-LSU teammate and current Texans star corner Derek Stingley Jr. (the third overall pick in the 2022 draft), who likely will have primary coverage responsibility on Jets. Darnold and O’Connell should test the young corner early if that’s the case, as Jefferson can usually beat anyone in single coverage. Jefferson has only had a total of 13 targets over the first two weeks (he did miss the fourth quarter last week with the quad injury), and he should always have at least 10 targets per game.
If Addison is out, Nailor must continue his strong early-season play, and valuable backup Brandon Powell should get a few balls, too, as he did in crunch time last week. And look for Robert Tonyan to be activated from the practice squad with Nick Muse on IR and get some opportunities in the passing game in the receiving tight end role T.J. Hockenson will have when he comes off IR (for the Week 5 game in London against the Jets, at least that’s the Vikings’ hope for their Pro Bowl TE).
4. Continue to stay even or win the turnover battle. The Vikings have had two takeaways and two giveaways in each of the first two games.
5. Stop the run—it’s another week of facing a strong rushing attack after Jordan Mason ran for 100 yards on 20 carries, but that was the extent of the 49ers ground game. The Vikings rank seventh in run D. Joe Mixon is a quality back with 184 rushing yards (4.7 average; 159 yards rushing in the opening win at Indianapolis) but he didn’t practice Wednesday with his bad ankle.
His backup, Dameon Pierce, missed the Chicago game with a hamstring problem, so Akers took his place (seven carries for 32 yards). The Vikings also must be wary of WR Tank Dell on jet sweeps (he has five carries for 35 yards this far).
The Vikings’ defensive line, led by Harrison Phillips, must continue to play well in run defense. Cashman and Ivan Pace, who have been impactful at the inside backer spots against the run and pass, also must continue to play well.
I said last week that whichever team runs the ball better had a great chance to emerge victorious, and the Vikings outrushed the Niners 146-102. The same goes for this week and most weeks in 2024 for a better-balanced Vikings offense.
6. Pressure and confuse Stroud with crowd noise a factor—what a terrific start to the season for Brian Flores’ defense that is more talented and has more depth this season even without Hunter.
Greenard (like Cashman and Griffin) will be amped up against his former team. He has played very well in the first two games, with one sack and 12 pressures. It will be essential that Greenard and playmaker extraordinaire Andrew Van Ginkel get pressure from the edges on Stroud, along with the surprising Pat Jones (four sacks in two games), Jihad Ward, Dallas Turner (if he is able to play with a knee that has him on the injury report this week), and Harrison Phillips inside.
Flores has not blitzed as much in the first two weeks compared to last season, but I expect him to send five rushers at Stroud early to see if he can handle it with blitzes from Cashman, Pace, Josh Metellus, and Harrison Smith. Stroud is a great young quarterback, but he hasn’t seen a defense like Flores and the Vikings, where extra defenders are coming to the line and either rush or back off.
The Texans’ offensive line is led by four-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil and solid right tackle Tytus Howard. They’re similar in ability and high salaries to Darrisaw and O’Neill. Perhaps the Vikings can do some damage inside, too, especially if starting center Juice Scruggs is out (groin).
Brock Purdy is usually poised, but the Vikings sacked him six times, hit him seven times, and pressured him into an interception and a lost fumble. We’ll see if they can do it again with the aid of crowd noise (that O’Connell called “phenomenal” in the 49ers game), helping the rushers get a good jump on the Texans’ O-linemen.
7. New corners cover well—it’s been great to see Stephon Gilmore, Byron Murphy, and Shaq Griffin holding up well in coverage for the most part. If Collins can play, they’ll be tested this week by one of the league’s top trios: Collins, Diggs, and Dell.
Diggs has only 10 catches for 70 yards, but two of them have been TDs over the first two games. He’s likely to have a bigger role this week with Collins banged up and as he goes against his former team.
TE Dalton Schultz is also a key part of the Texans’ passing attack, so Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum, and Josh Metellus (when he’s not blitzing) must contain him with help from the linebackers.
A heavy pass rush is a corner’s best friend, and that will be the case every week, but especially against a dangerous team such as Houston.
8. Win the special teams battle with two hot kickers in action—Will Reichard is off to a great start for the Vikings in his rookie season (3 of 3 on field goals, including the game-clinching 27-yarder with 3:30 remaining last Sunday and 6 of 6 on extra points). Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn is the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week after making all four field goal attempts against the Bears, with three of them over 50 yards (including a 59-yarder).
The Vikings’ coverage units must continue to be solid (Brian Asamoah, Akayleb Evans, and Jay Ward have been doing a nice job), and another blocked punt like last week by C.J. Ham would be of immense help.
9. Cut down on penalties–the Vikings have been penalized seven times in each of the first two games, and O’Connell wants that trend to stop on Sunday. Brandel must stop his false starts.
Prediction:
63.7% of teams starting 2-0 have made the playoffs since 1970, which bodes well for both the Vikings and Texans. That means the Vikings should now be considered a solid playoff contender and possible NFC North title contender (they now have an early one-game lead over their three divisional rivals). The odds will improve even more for the winner of this game.
It’s another exciting matchup that is sure to be an entertaining game. If this game were in Houston, I’d pick the Texans, a rising power in the AFC. But with the game at home, I think the Vikings fans can make an impact as they did last week. I just like how the Vikings’ defense is getting after the quarterback and it helps the D that Stroud is not the running threat that Daniel Jones and Purdy presented.
I think the Vikings’ defense forces a couple of turnovers, and Darnold continues to play at a high level, connecting with Jefferson and Nailor and hitting Jones and Chandler out of the backfield. The run game will contribute enough.
I predict the Vikings win 27-24 on a last-second Reichard field goal. Then it’s Packer Week, and on to Lambeau!
Around the NFL Week 3 picks:
1. The only other Week 3 matchup of 2-0 teams is the L.A. Chargers at Pittsburgh. The Steelers, with their fourth-ranked run defense, prepare to face the 2-0 Chargers and their second-ranked rushing attack (surprisingly led by NFL rushing leader J.K. Dobbins with 256 yards as he comes off several injury-filled seasons in Baltimore). Look for a low-scoring game between the two top-ranked scoring defenses (the Chargers have allowed 13 points and the Steelers 16). Pittsburgh prevails in this battle in the trenches.
2. Detroit’s offense is struggling after losing 20-16 at home to Tampa Bay in a game the Lions were shut out in the fourth quarter. Jared Goff is off to a lousy start, with two interceptions last week. His passer rating through two games is a lowly 69.6, ranking 25th after his 2023 season when he was ninth at 97.9 as he led the Lions to the NFC title game.
The Cardinals demolished the Rams 41-10 last week. This is a Cardinals team on the rise, with an improved talent level and quarterback Kyler Murray back to full strength. He’s off to a great start with a passer rating of 122.9, four TD passes, no interceptions, and a 73.1% completion rate.
In the Rams game, Murray scrambled for 59 yards and threw for 266 yards. First-round receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. served notice on the Rams and the league with four catches for 130 yards and two TDs. James Conner rushed for 122 yards as Arizona had 37 minutes in time of possession.
Coach Jonathan Gannon’s underrated defense sacked Matthew Stafford five times while stopping the run (53 yards). This is an upset-alert game in the Arizona heat, but I think the Lions will find a way to win.
3. Also in the NFC North, Jordan Love is practicing on a limited basis with his MCL injury, but I think the Packers will go with Malik Willis against his former Titans team and try to pound it on the ground as they did last week with Josh Jacobs (151 rushing yards against the Colts). This is another possible upset, but the Packers’ defense had three picks off Indy’s Anthony Richardson in their win last Sunday, and they can do the same against careless Tennessee QB Will Levis. The Pack is my pick, and then we’ll have a week of “Will Love return against the Vikings in the big Week 4 divisional game in Green Bay?”
4. Top overall pick Caleb Williams has been awful for two weeks now, and I think he’ll continue to struggle with his porous O-line not helping enough. The Bears are at Indianapolis, and the Colts have to feel that their season is on the line after being a contender in the AFC South at 9-8 last season. Having to put their best defensive player, DT DeForest Buckner, on IR (ankle) is a huge loss for the Colts D, but I think they will beat the Bears in basically a must-win game to avoid an 0-3 start.
5. I like the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes over the Falcons in the Sunday nighter at Atlanta as the Falcons come off an emotional Monday night win in Philly on the late drive directed by Kirk Cousins (who had not played well until that drive which the Eagles helped with soft coverage). Cousins will see too much pass rush pressure from Chris Jones and Company in this game, and he’s not beating Mahomes in a prime-time game even though he got the W over Jalen Hurts last Monday.
6. In a couple of other interesting matchups, I think the Cowboys will drop the Ravens to 0-3 with a home win, and I like the Saints’ prolific offense (91 points in two wins over Carolina and Dallas) to take care of an Eagles team traveling on a short week after a heart-wrenching defeat in a game they would’ve won if Saquon Barkley had not dropped a late third-down pass.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl.