That Sam Darnold Thing Is Happening
If you were one of the men or women who said something to the effect of, “Sam Darnold will have a Baker Mayfield-like season,” you need to visit your local sportsbook.
That Sam Darnold Thing Is Happening
Darnold is absolutely actionizing the Baker Mayfield 2023 season prediction and, in fact, is playing better than Mayfield at this time last year.
The Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 after toppling the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers, a record some believed would be the inverse by September 16th. The purple team somehow lives in sole possession of first place in the NFC North, and the team’s playoff probability climbed from 28% before Week 1 to 52% by the start of Week 3.
Wipe that smile off your face; Darnold is really doing it.
For starters, he’s making throws like this:
And this on crucial 3rd Downs:
Of course, Minnesota has a long way to go before reaching the postseason or winning the NFC North, but like Mayfield in 2023, there is no evidence to suggest Darnold will encounter a faceplant. Last year, for example, former Vikings passer Joshua Dobbs produced two glorious games before the rest of the NFL re-realized his arm talent suspicion. The guy couldn’t throw outside the numbers and had difficulty stretching the field with his pass-catchers.
Darnold is emphatically the antithesis. His major malfunction through six seasons arose in the form of turnovers and rotten situations. In Minnesota, he’s still clocking one turnover per game — which this brand of Vikings can probably swallow and be just fine — and has the scenery to die for.
And even when Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones weren’t on the field late in the 4th Quarter, Darnold delivered the dart to Nailor, extending the drive and enabling the Vikings to snuff out the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers, a team that formerly employed Darnold.
Darnold could encounter a spike in turnovers; that’s not an unreasonable hypothesis. But his undeniable arm talent — to the tune of the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft — won’t go away.
This is Baker Mayfield all over again.
The numbers? Darnold has those, too. As of September 16th, he ranks fourth per Pro Football Focus grade among quarterbacks, fifth in the NFL per EPA+CPOE, and fifth in ESPN’s QBR metric. Through two games, he’s a Top 5 passer; forget about Top 10.
The clues were there this offseason, courtesy of optimistic Vikings fans and some NFL media members. Now, the Sam Darnold thing is happening.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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