Favorable Schedule Offers Vikings Opportunity to Get on Another Roll
Hall of Fame Coach Bud Grant always said his teams had to play well enough not to allow the officials to have a major influence on the outcome of games due to bad calls.
That was my second thought after first wondering how the referee and another official in the vicinity could possibly miss the facemask grab of Sam Darnold on the sack/safety by the Rams’ Byron Young that sealed the Vikings’ 30-20 loss in L.A.
Favorable Schedule Offers Vikings Opportunity to Get on Another Roll
The Vikings still would’ve had to drive another 80 yards with 1:36 remaining and no timeouts, but they were robbed of the opportunity on an obvious missed call. The NFL needs to change the replay rules to allow for a review of potential facemask penalties. Maybe this critical miss by the officials will be the impetus for change. The referee (who was closest to the play) claimed he couldn’t see the facemask grab, but it was obvious the way Darnold was yanked down, and that Young immediately put his hands to his face as he knew he’d made a big mistake.
Getting back to Grant’s theory on officials, the game was certainly winnable for the Vikings despite the excellent performance by Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who had four TD passes (and with his top two receivers back and making a huge impact — Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua).
Now, the difficult early season schedule — with five 2023 playoff teams in the first seven games — turns more favorable for the Vikings. There are no easy games in an NFL season, but the path forward has two teams currently with losing records over the next five weeks — Jacksonville (2-6) and Tennessee (1-6), although both games are on the road. Indianapolis is 4-4 with QB Anthony Richardson struggling as the Vikings and Colts meet on Sunday night at U.S. Bank Stadium. Arizona is also 4-4 currently, and Chicago (4-3 off their disastrous Hail Mary loss in Washington) is the only team with a winning record in these next five games.
It’s a big blow to the Vikings’ offensive line to have to play without their excellent left tackle, Christian Darrisaw, who is out for the season with a knee injury from the Rams game. A boost will come from the return of Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson in the Colts game. And the Vikings defense will hope to have star inside linebacker Blake Cashman back in the lineup on Sunday if he’s recovered from his turf toe injury. He has been sorely missed in the losses to the Lions and the Rams.
Here are my other reactions to the Vikings loss at the Rams:
1. It was a disappointing last two games as the Vikings fell from unbeaten to 5-2, but the Vikings were competitive in both games. In my preseason prediction, I had the Purple at 2-5 through seven games (before finishing strong at 9-8), so they are still in great shape to make a run at the NFC North title or a wild card spot. Just splitting their last 10 games would get them to 10-7, which should be playoff-bound, but I think they will reach 12 wins, which may not be enough to catch Detroit (or possibly Green Bay) but should gain the No. 5 or 6 seed in the NFC playoffs.
2. The Vikings’ “self-inflicteds” (as Kevin O’Connell calls them) were a big part of losing to the Rams, including nine penalties for 50 yards and a ridiculous five first downs by penalty on defense to extend drives and lead to scores for the Rams offense. The offense had another three pre-snap penalties to put several drives behind the chains. The Vikings must clean up their penalty-ridden issues in all three phases.
3. The Vikings offense started the game with two excellent touchdown drives in which Justin Jefferson was targeted five times with five receptions for 68 yards. The offense produced only two field goals on the next seven drives, with Jefferson having no targets on 10 plays run in the fourth quarter, which continued a recent trend of not targeting him enough (nine targets in this game and only one game this season with double-digit targets — against the Jets in London).
I call that a “self-inflicted” by Darnold for not looking Jefferson’s way enough and O’Connell not emphasizing enough to get the ball to the NFL’s best receiver and the team’s best player, even as he’s usually double-covered.
4. Jefferson’s amazing (but not surprising for him) 27-yard juggling catch early in the third quarter is another example of the plays he’s capable of making on a regular basis if given enough targets.
That catch set up the Vikings with 1st-and-Goal from the Rams 4. I understand running Aaron Jones on the next play against the Rams run D, who ranked 30th in the game, and Jones rushing for 38 yards in the first half (with a 4.2-yard average). But Jones lost four yards on that first-down carry, setting up 2nd-and-Goal from the 8, and O’Connell made a poor decision to call another run for Jones (or maybe Darnold should have audibled to a pass play) when Darnold had success through the air in the first half, especially to Jefferson.
Jones gained three yards on the wasted play, and the third-down pass fell incomplete, with Will Reichard kicking a 23-yard field goal to put the Vikings ahead 17-14. The Rams took the lead with Stafford’s 25-yard TD pass to Demarcus Robinson on the next series.
5. As was the case with Jared Goff and the Lions, Stafford attacked the Vikings’ defense with a lot of throws over the middle that was missing Cashman’s excellence in pass D and quick throws, including several screens to Nacua, Kupp, and a good running back in Kyren Williams (who scored the Rams’ first TD when he beat Ivan Pace to the inside for a 5-yard score). The return of Cashman will help the D, but the Vikings defenders must be tighter in coverage on these screens and quick passes.
It was a shaky game for all the Vikings’ corners. Byron Murphy had a nice sideline pick of Stafford, but he and fellow CBs Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin, and the Vikings safeties were beaten on too many plays and had several missed tackles.
The Vikings especially need Gilmore to get back to his stellar play from the first five games compared to giving up too many receptions in the last two games.
6. The pass rushers must get pressure more quickly, with quarterbacks getting the ball out fast. Perhaps the short week with the Thursday night game after a physical game with the Lions took its toll on the team, especially the pass rushers.
The good news is that the Vikings don’t face a passer over the next several weeks who is of the caliber of Goff and Stafford, with the possible exception of the up-and-down Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville after the Colts game. The defense’s disguises and the crowd noise should be able to rattle second-year Indy QB Anthony Richardson if the Vikings can better cover the quick passing game and control an excellent back in Jonathan Taylor in the run game.
7. When the Vikings face the Colts on Sunday night, I expect to see Blake Brandel move from left guard to left tackle to replace Darrisaw (who Brandel has stepped in for in the past when Darrisaw has missed some games). Then Dalton Risner can start at left guard as he did last season (and played reasonably well). I like that approach better than going with 34-year-old journeyman David Quessenberry, who gave up several pressures in the second half against the Rams and has not been a regular starter since 2021 with the Titans.
I’ll be back on Friday to preview the Vikings-Colts matchup, which looks like a must-win bounce-back win for the Vikings to stay in the rugged NFC North race. They are now behind Detroit (6-1) and Green Bay (6-2).
Around the NFL in Week 8 & a look ahead to Week 9:
1. In the NFC North, the Bears suffered a heartbreaking loss in Washington on the final-play Hail Mary from Jayden Daniels to Noah Brown. The Bears had just taken the lead with 19 seconds left before CB Tyrique Stevenson blew the coverage on the final play and allowed Brown to stand alone in the end zone, waiting for the tipped ball.
The Lions crushed the Titans 52-14 in a game Jared Goff only had to throw for 85 yards (with three TDs) due to four Tennessee turnovers and a 90-yard punt return TD by Kalif Raymond. The Packers needed a walk-off field goal by Brandon McManus for the second straight week to win 30-27 in Jacksonville. Malik Willis relieved the injured Jordan Love (groin) and directed the winning drive.
2. In other games, Kirk Cousins threw four TD passes as Atlanta won at Tampa Bay 31-26 to complete the season sweep and take control of the NFC South. The Eagles improved to 5-2 (a half-game behind the Commanders in the NFC East) with a convincing 37-17 victory in Cincinnati. Jameis Winston passed for 334 yards and three touchdowns, leading the host Browns to a 29-24 upset of the Ravens, who had won five straight games.
This Sunday night, the Vikings’ opponent, the Colts, lost a key divisional game in Houston 23-20 to give the Texans a season sweep. Richardson completed only 10 of 32 passes for 175 yards, one TD, one pick, and a lost fumble, and he was sacked five times. The Colts’ D allowed Joe Mixon to rush for 102 yards and a TD, and Texans QB C.J. Stroud threw for 285 yards. Indianapolis had nine penalties for 57 yards.
The 49ers beat the struggling Cowboys 30-24, and the Chiefs remained unbeaten with a 27-20 win in Las Vegas.
3. Big games in Week 9 besides the Colts at Vikings include Detroit at Green Bay with first place in the NFC North on the line. The Packers need a healthy Love in this game against the hot Lions, who have won five straight. The two teams split their series last year, and both teams won on the road. An obvious key will be if Love can play with his groin injury, and the pressure will be on the Packers’ defense to slow down the league’s top-scoring offense (33.4 points per game).
Chicago’s game at Arizona will be challenging. They are trying to bounce back from their loss in Washington, and the Cardinals are coming off a thrilling, last-second win in Miami.
A big game in the NFC West has the Rams at Seattle, with L.A. coming off their win over the Vikings. The Seahawks were whipped at home 31-10 by Buffalo, who has Josh Allen playing at an MVP level. He’s been much better this season in the turnover area, with only one interception (and 14 TD passes despite breaking in new starting wide receivers after the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis).
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Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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