Daniel Jones Intrigue as Vikings Host Cardinals
It’s never dull in Vikingsland. As the Vikings seek their tenth win (that basically locks up a playoff spot) against NFC West co-leader Arizona on Sunday, the news broke that the Vikings have signed ex-Giants QB Daniel Jones to the practice squad.
I like Jones as a quality quarterback when he has a better offensive line than he had in New York (the worst in the NFL with 85 sacks allowed last season and slightly better at eighth worst with 34 sacks allowed this season). If he ever plays a game for the Vikings, he’ll have a better O-line and a better supporting cast of skill position players (led by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones).
Daniel Jones Intrigue as Vikings Host Cardinals
We all remember Jones’s excellent season in 2022, when he led the Giants to the playoffs and had a great game, upsetting the Vikings 31-24 in the wild-card round. Jones passed for 301 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 78 yards in that game.
His performance during the 2022 season and in the playoff win led to the 2019 sixth overall pick of the Giants signing a $40 million per year deal. But he suffered an ACL injury last season and went 2-8 as the starter this season with a lowly passer rating of 79.4 before being benched and released.
I think it’s a smart signing by the Vikings as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get bent out of shape by the move. I don’t see that as an issue since Darnold is a cool customer who understands how the NFL works. And Kevin O’Connell will reinforce his faith in Darnold to continue leading the team this season as Darnold comes off perhaps his best Vikings game with 330 passing yards and two TDs, along with completing all six of his passes for 90 yards on the overtime drive that led to the game-winning field goal in Chicago.
The 27-year-old Jones is a much better QB than Nick Mullens, with a lot more starting experience (69 career starts vs. 20 for Mullens). If he quickly picks up the Vikings offense (and he’s a smart guy who played in college at Duke), Jones should be the backup to Darnold come playoff time. Like Darnold, Jones is a potential veteran bridge quarterback to J.J. McCarthy next season, as McCarthy comes off his knee injury, and Darnold is also a potential free agent after this season.
Jones probably will be less costly than Darnold on a one-year deal if Darnold finishes the season well and wins a playoff game or two.
Regarding the important Cardinals game that is taking a back seat to the Jones story early this week, it’s another big game for the Vikings as they try to stay close to Detroit and ahead of Green Bay in the NFC North race.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over Arizona:
1. Darnold and the offense ride the momentum from the OT win: The Cardinals’ defense has played well recently, holding their last three opponents (Bears, Jets, and Seahawks) all under 17 points. The Vikings need to get off to a good start on Sunday with a mix of running with Aaron Jones and Cam Akers against the 17th-ranked run D and passing against the 20th-ranked pass defense.
2. Watch out for Budda Baker: The Cardinals’ six-time Pro Bowl safety is the team’s leading tackler with 107 (fifth-most in the league). He’s also an effective blitzer (two sacks this season) and has three passes defensed.
3. A little more Jefferson: He’s been getting a lot of attention with double teams and safeties over the top, but the Vikings still need to target their best player more than the five targets he had in Chicago. They can do that and still get the ball to Hockenson and Addison, along with Jalen Nailor and Jones. How about some quick wide receiver screens to JJets?
4. Left tackle spot a concern: We’ll see if Cam Robinson’s foot injury keeps him out this week. If that’s the case, I’d rather see Blake Brandel play left tackle, move Dalton Risner to left guard, and play Ed Ingram at right guard as opposed to starting David Quessenberry at LT after he allowed two sacks and five pressures in Chicago. Quessenberry is ok in short-term relief with help from the tight ends but not in a starting role.
And on the injury front, it will help the run game and the passing attack if tight end Josh Oliver can return this week from his ankle injury. We’ll see if newly added linebacker Jamin Davis (a former first-round pick in Washington) can quickly get up to speed and help replace Ivan Pace this week and for the next several weeks until Pace is ready to return from IR with his hamstring injury. Otherwise, Kamu Grugier-Hill can do the job well enough as he did when Blake Cashman was out.
5. Defense stop the run as the Seahawks did last Sunday in their 16-6 win over the Cardinals: The Cardinals rank sixth in rushing but Seattle stopped the run with only 49 yards on the ground for Arizona. James Conner has 705 rushing yards and five TDs, but he was held to eight yards on seven carries. The dangerous Kyler Murray (380 yards rushing and four TDs) had only two carries for nine yards. The Vikings No. 1 ranked run defense should be able to shut them down as Seattle did.
6. Contain Murray’s running and passing and cover Harrison and McBride: He’s a dual threat, and the Vikings had trouble with Caleb Williams last week as he escaped pressure and made big plays passing or running. Murray is even quicker than Williams and has hurt the Vikings with his scrambling in past games, so the Vikings have to get him down when they have a shot. Cashman will likely be assigned to shadow Murray (and he’s done a great job in that role when called upon this season).
Murray was sacked five times last week after going into the game with one of the lowest sack rates. The Vikings’ outstanding edge rushers need to be on their game and get to Murray or force a bad throw, as with the Pick 6 he threw on fourth down last week, which was Seattle’s insurance score.
Fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison is a big play threat (15.2 yards per catch and five TDs), and tight end Trey McBride (61 catches, 685 yards, including 12 catches for 133 yards last week) is Murray’s top target. The Vikings’ secondary has to play better than last week to contain them.
7. Win the turnover battle: Darnold did not throw a pick in the last two games, which is a good sign that he’s being more cautious and throwing it away or taking a sack when necessary. The Vikings are plus 4 in turnover margin, lead the league in interceptions (16), and are second in takeaways (22). The Cardinals are even with 12 takeaways and giveaways.
8. Home crowd play a role: The Vikings are back home after three straight road wins, and the home crowd will be loud and excited as usual. This can create problems for the Cardinals’ offense with false starts and help the Vikings’ edge rushers get a jump on the OTs.
9. Clean up the special teams mistakes and Romo stay hot: The Cardinals rank 10th in kickoff returns (DeeJay Dallas has a 30.6-yard average) and 13th in punt returns (Greg Dortch — 10.6). The Vikings must not allow any long kickoff or punt returns, as with DeAndre Carter’s 55-yard kickoff return that set up the Bears late TD. And the onside kick team has to be better (we’re talking to you, Johnny Mundt…watch where the ball is kicked before you block).
If Will Reichard’s quad is healed by next week’s Atlanta game, then this could be Romo’s last game for the Vikings. But if he has another perfect day, O’Connell may give Reichard another week or two before bringing him off IR.
10. Stay fairly penalty-free: The Vikings have been better than their opponents in this area in recent weeks, and that needs to continue.
Predicting the outcome: I think the Vikings will make the Cardinals’ offense one-dimensional by stopping the run, giving up some yards in the air, sacking Murray four times, and picking him off once. Darnold and the offense will move the ball well enough.
Vikings win 27-20. 10-2 sounds great if they indeed get the W.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 13:
1. On Thanksgiving, 10-1 Detroit should handle the Bears, but the 8-3 Packers likely will have a tougher test with Miami, which at 5-6 is still in the AFC wild-card race and has won three straight since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his latest concussion. I think the Packers will win a close game against the Dolphins, who didn’t fare well in the playoffs last season at cold Kansas City.
2. The Vikings and Cardinals are one of three games this weekend involving teams that both have winning records. The others are the Vikings’ opponent next week — the Falcons and Kirk Cousins, at 6-5, hosting the 7-4 Chargers and 9-2 Philly at 8-4 Baltimore. I pick the road teams to win each of these games.
The Vikings Won the Sweepstakes
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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