Week 1 NFL Picks: Can the Vikings Pull Off a Road Victory to Start the Year?

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

The NFL regular season has officially kicked off which means it’s time to bring back the NFL picks series.

Last year, we finished the regular season just under .500 with a 134-135-17 record making picks for every single game (while sprinkling in a few over/under picks along the way). This year, we’ll be narrowing things down a bit, picking seven games every week.

Here is a look at the picks for Week 1 with odds found via ESPN.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills

Week 1 NFL Picks
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports.
  • Spread: Bills -6.5
  • O/U: 47.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Cardinals +6.5

This feels like it could be the overreact game of Week 1. The Cardinals should be an improved team in 2024 with a healthy Kyler Murray throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr. along with a duo of James Conner and Trey Benson holding down the backfield. Meanwhile, Buffalo may still be working some things out for their own offense without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the mix. The Bills came out flat in Week 1 in 2023, and it very well could happen again in 2024.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports.
  • Spread: Falcons -3.5
  • O/U: 44.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Falcons -3.5

Justin Fields could be starting for the Steelers this week with Russell Wilson working through a calf injury. That bodes well for Kirk Cousins’ first game leading the Atlanta Falcons. Pittsburgh’s defense is a strong unit, but Atlanta’s offense should be able to put up enough points to win this game.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.
  • Spread: Vikings -1.5
  • O/U: 41.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Vikings -1.5

The Giants and Vikings are two teams who could take the momentum of this Week 1 result into the rest of the season. Minnesota has a brutal schedule following this game, and there are mounting questions in New York already before the game even starts. Both teams should have strong pass rushes this year, and the defenses could control the pace. The Vikings will have Jordan Addison alongside Justin Jefferson though, and that should be enough to get a win.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins

Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports.
  • Spread: Dolphins -3.5
  • O/U: 48.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Dolphins -3.5

Last season, the Miami Dolphins were 7-2 at home during 2023. Their homefield advantage in south Florida plays perfectly into their desire to spread the offense and get their speedsters cooking. Miami wins this game in a high-flying thriller.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports.
  • Spread: Browns -2.5
  • O/U: 40.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Cowboys +2.5

There has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East since 2004. As a result, everyone seems to be pegging the Cowboys as a team to take a step back in 2024. It very well could happen, but the Cleveland Browns won’t be the team to prove it. Deshaun Watson did not play well in the six games that he did start last fall, and Mike Zimmer will have this Dallas defense ready to roll.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

Lions at Vikings: A Tale of Two Different Teams
Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
  • Spread: Lions -4.5
  • O/U: 52.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Rams +4.5

It’s a rematch of the Wild Card round on Sunday Night Football. All word out of Detroit suggests that this might be the year for a Jameson Williams breakout which would put an already strong offense over the top. The Rams will remember how their season ended last winter, though. Los Angeles stuns the Lions.

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
  • Spread: 49ers -4.5
  • O/U: 43.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Jets +4.5

The San Francisco 49ers found a way to get both Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk new contracts, but the Super Bowl hangover remains a real thing. Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets will be ultra motivated to come out and set a tone this season after how 2023 went. With an elite defense alongside Rodgers, the Jets upset San Francisco on Monday night.