Aug 16, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; A general view a Minnesota Vikings helmet during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Bills beat the Vikings 20-16. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports.
“Will they or won’t they” re-sign quarterback Sam Darnold is a Minnesota Vikings-themed talker that will arrive on your doorstep in about two months.
Darnold joined the Vikings in March on a one-year, $10 million deal, and if Minnesota does not re-sign the reclamation-project passer, he’ll once again hit the open market in March 2025.
And according to ESPN, Darnold will instantly be one of the league’s most coveted free agents if so. The sports media giant took an early peek at 2025 free agency, and on its list of top free agents, Darnold checked in at No. 8.
“Why he could get paid: Darnold has completed 68.6% of his throws, and his 17 touchdown passes are tied for fourth in the league. His decision-making can still be questioned here, and he has thrown at least one interception in seven of nine games played this season. But with his arm strength and mobility, Darnold will have options on the market if he can produce over the second half of the season,” ESPN’s Matt Bowen wrote this week.
Darnold ranks 11th in the NFL among all qualifying passers, per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added. He endured a rough game last weekend, but most onlookers expect a reasonable bounceback in Week 11 and beyond.
Jeremy Fowler added about Darnold as the eighth-best free agent on the horizon: “What we’re hearing: Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell has deemed injured rookie J.J. McCarthy (knee) the franchise’s quarterback of the future, which seemingly sets the stage for Darnold to sign elsewhere.”
“But Darnold and Minnesota are 7-2 together, so entertaining a bridge deal while the team continues to develop McCarthy behind the scenes shouldn’t be completely off the table. Darnold’s decision-making on the field down the stretch will determine a lot about his future.”
Surmising Darnold’s landing spots is a little tricky. On the surface, it would seem the teams that need quarterback help aren’t very successful, on the whole. For example, would Darnold really thrive in Las Vegas with the Raiders or with the Tennessee Titans?
He might be best served to latch onto a team head coached by a skipper from the Shanahan coaching tree — like the Los Angeles Rams when Matthew Stafford retires. Otherwise, Darnold could regress to his pre-2024 profile in the wrong system.
Some will ask why the Vikings don’t re-sign the 27-year-old. They might — but he’ll have one big shot next offseason to fetch a contract worth $40 million or more if he continues his current statistical pace in the Twin Cities. Darnold, at a price point of $40+ million, would almost assuredly cancel the Vikings’ participation in his sweepstakes.
Vikings safety Camryn Bynum also made the ESPN free-agent list, with No. 16 placement.
Free agency is four months away.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.