Vikings Fans Should Rethink Aaron Jones’ Role in 2024
In March, the Minnesota Vikings signed former Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones for one year and $7 million. Many peg the new Viking as the solve-all solution at RB1, a fair assumption.
Vikings Fans Should Rethink Aaron Jones’ Role in 2024
Minnesota saved $3.35 million by releasing Alexander Mattison in March, flipping that cash into Jones for a one-year experiment. Jones has played against Minnesota 11 times in his career, and now, with any luck, he’ll suit up for 17 games with his former foe, including two games versus the Packers. He’s tallied 847 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns as a Packer against the Vikings since joining the NFL in 2017 as a 5th-Round Pick.
But with the regular season 59 days away, Vikings fans should examine Jones in a different light — one that doesn’t necessarily involve a ginormous workload.
Not a Career-Long Bellcow
Because of his fantastic achievements at times since 2017, Vikings fans and some NFL pundits have coined Jones a “bellcow” running back — a player that takes the vast majority of his team’s rushing carries. While Jones’ production has been impressive in the last seven seasons, he is not a total workhorse. Not by a longshot.
Green Bay handed the rock to Jones 1,177 times in 97 career games. That’s 12 rushing attempts per game. Keep in mind, much of that is the prime version of Jones, not the soon-to-be 30-year-old version on the way to Minnesota.
For perspective, former Vikings tailback Dalvin Cook has averaged over 15 rushing carries per game since entering the business in the same year as Jones. Cook was closer to a bellcow back than Jones’ utilization in Wisconsin.
It’s severely unlikely that Minnesota will increase Jones’ carry load as he approaches age 30. In fact, his standard 12 carries per game should be expected in 2024, if not less. And that’s on top of the fact that the modern NFL fancies running back-by-committee.
Vikings Don’t Run the Ball Much Anyway
Kevin O’Connell’s offense ran the football 23 times per game — also known as the fifth-fewest in the NFL last season. Moreover, via playcall percentage, the Vikings gave the ball to running backs the third least in 2023.
This isn’t some run-first offense craving a contributor like Jones to transform the enterprise. Minnesota’s front office added Jones so it could escape the doldrums of poor overall performance in back-to-back seasons. O’Connell’s offense ranked 27th per rushing DVOA in 2022 and again in 2023.
Indeed, the purple team could decide to run the ball more in 2024, but that would spike the per-game total to something like 26 or 27 rushes instead of 23.
Add Jones’ 12 carries per game throughout his career to Minnesota’s 23 rushing attempts, and the carries must go elsewhere — probably to this guy …
Ty Chandler in the House
Ty Chandler just turned 26 and is entering the absolute physical prime of his career. Jones is 3.5 years older. Chandler will find an “RB2” next to his name when the depth chart drops late in August, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a footnote player who fetches 3-4 rushing attempts per contest.
Chandler should be expected to earn an equitable carry load to Jones’, or a number closer to 10 or so if one assumes Jones will check in at his career average of 12. In a couple of games last season, when the Vikings finally pulled the plug on the Mattison Experiment, Chandler flourished and very much looked the part of an RB1.
Envisioning the 2024 campaign, fans have become lost in the Jones-apalooza of the what-ifs. In reality, he’ll probably run the ball about 10-12 times, with his counterpart, Chandler, grabbing a similar amount.
And that’s if Jones stays healthy in the first place. He’s missed 17% of all games due to injury since the start of 2020.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment.