You’ll Be Stunned by Vegas Frontrunner for Vikings Week 1 QB

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Minnesota Vikings fans will be notified of Kirk Cousins’ future with the team sometime next week. But in the meantime, the oddsmakers’ Vikings QB1 prediction is truly mind-boggling.

Vegas’ Vikings QB1 Prediction Is Truly Wild

Assuming Cousins does not return to the Vikings — many believe he’s on the brink of joining the Atlanta Falcons in free agency — it’s not a rookie quarterback back favored to take over in Week 1 of 2024.

It’s Justin Fields.

Vikings QB1 Prediction
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Fields is expected to be traded in the next seven weeks, as the Chicago Bears will likely choose Caleb Williams with the draft’s first overall draft pick in April. The selection would leave Fields orphaned as a QB1, and evidently, he’d be a fit for the Vikings, at least per sportsbooks.

These are the odds for Minnesota’s Week 1 QB1 from

  • Justin Fields = 3/1
  • Trey Lance = 4/1
  • Joshua Dobbs = 9/2
  • Any Rookie QB = 5/1
  • Gardner Minshew = 5/1
  • Russell Wilson = 6/1
  • Ryan Tannehill = 7/1
  • Baker Mayfield = 10/1
  • Sam Howell = 10/1
if the Vikings Trade
Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports.

Fields to Minnesota isn’t a brand new theory; it has twisted in the NFL’s rumor mill for about a month. Yet, until the BetOnline odds update, it felt like a speculative what-if. Perhaps there’s more to it.

Last week, ESPN connected the Vikings to Fields as a possible trade suitor. The link felt silly at the time. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote Sunday, “The major quarterback domino that many are waiting to fall is Chicago’s Justin Fields decision. Chicago has not played its hand, and several league sources believe Fields — who has not requested a trade — could probably garner a Day 2 pick in a potential deal. There’s no firm deadline on a trade, though the start of free agency is sort of a soft one. Chicago will need multiple teams in the fray to drive a market, and after asking around, I expect Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Minnesota to be on the radar.”

Does Who Plays
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Fields ranked 21st per EPA+CPOE last season, an efficiency metric measuring wins added per player, in his third NFL campaign. Of course, that mark isn’t necessarily ideal, and Vikings faithful would maintain hope that his upside could be uncorked with Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage.

The price for Fields would be fascinating. He won’t cost a 1st-Rounder, instead likely attainable for a 2nd-Rounder or so. Minnesota would have to pay more than other teams due to an “NFC North tax” if Fields were traded to a division rival.

Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports.

Drawbacks of Fields in Minnesota? Well, he’s not very accurate, and that’s the primary trait coveted by head coach O’Connell in a quarterback. Fields also hasn’t put a full season of good football on paper, rather turning on the jets later toward the midseason. Nobody knows for sure if he has the “it factor” to succeed on the whole. His next team will learn before too long.

If the BetOnline odds are correct, Fields-to-Vikings as a real concept will turn white-hot if and when Cousins signs with the Falcons.

Free agency starts Monday with “legal tampering.”

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by