Updated Odds for Vikings Next QB

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports | Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) celebrates after winning 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game against the Washington Huskies at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports.

On March 13th, 2024, former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins signed with the Atlanta Falcons, formally ending his career in the Twin Cities and kickstarting a fresh start for the 35-year-old in the NFC South.

Updated Odds for Vikings Next QB

Minnesota quickly signed Sam Darnold, once the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, as an insurance policy of sorts, biding time to presumably choose a quarterback of the future from this year’s draft.

Vikings mock draft
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy looks to pass against Indiana during the second half of U-M’s 52-7 win over Indiana on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Ann Arbor. © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK.

Well, that event is 16 days away, and Vikings fans’ appetites are absolutely sharpened to learn the new guy’s identity. With only days remaining, these are the approximate odds for this year’s “Big Six” quarterback class to end up in Minnesota:

  • J.J. McCarthy: +115
  • Drake Maye: +350
  • Michael Penix Jr.: +470
  • Jayden Daniels: +800
  • Bo Nix: +850
  • Caleb Williams: +5000

And the odds check out per fans’ expectations.

On March 15th, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah worked out a pre-draft trade, grabbing an additional 1st-Round pick from the Houston Texans while offloading two 2nd-Rounders in the deal, plus a late-round pick swap. Minnesota now owns the draft’s 11th and 23rd pick, more 1st-Round capital than any team besides the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals in this draft. That means Adofo-Mensah is equipped to move up the board again — probably on draft night — for his Cousins replacement.

purple rumor mill
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports.

Vikings faithful have made the choice essentially binary between Drake Maye (North Carolina) and J.J. McCarthy (Michigan).

The Vikings are forecasted to trade up the board with a team like the Washington Commanders (Pick No. 2), the New England Patriots (Pick No. 3), the Arizona Cardinals (Pick No. 4), or the Los Angeles Chargers (Pick No. 5), and after that, most believe Maye or McCarthy will become the target.

Penix Jr., too, remains in the mix, a compromise solution in which Minnesota would likely not have to trade anything on draft night. If Penix Jr. is the choice, the Vikings could use the extra 1st-Rounder on a defensive player. For instance, defensive tackle Byron Murphy II of Texas or cornerback Quinyon Mitchell of Toledo might make sense at pick No. 11 or 23.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports.

Daniels is the darling to be picked by the Commanders, chiefly because Kliff Kingsbury is the new offensive coordinator in Washington, and he adores mobile quarterbacks. There’s a world where Daniels encounters a draft slide, but as of early April, it feels far away in another galaxy.

Nix isn’t coveted by many Vikings fans, labeled as an “underneath” thrower who doesn’t have the broad skillset possessed by Maye or McCarthy, for example.

Who Is a Dark Horse
John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

On Williams, he’s a lock to the Bears unless a the swerviest of swerves is announced on draft night.

Overall, if you’re a Vikings fan who believes in “Maye or McCarthy” for life after Cousins, sportsbooks agree.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.

Share: