This Is the Vikings’ Current Playoff Math

Dustin Baker |

Nov 10, 2024

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (33) celebrates his touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

This Is the Vikings’ Current Playoff Math

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

Sep 29, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) fumbles the ball after being hit by Minnesota cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (7) during the fourth quarter of their game Sunday, September 29, 2024 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Vikings recovered the ball. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images.

This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 9 win over the Indianapolis Colts.

DVOA = 82.4%

Last week, DVOA estimated the Vikings playoff odds at 78.0%.

The Detroit Lions were supposed to win the division heading into Week 1 until Minnesota showed up for a surprise 5-0 start. Detroit has since reclaimed the NFC North lead and the summer forecasts feel accurate.

If Minnesota wins on Sunday, this percentage will probably climb into the high 80s.

Minnesota still has a chance to catch the Lions but will probably need Detroit to lose a couple of games, setting up Week 18 between the Lions and Vikings as a mighty battle.

Sportsbooks = 77.2%

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. (0) returns a fumble 36 yards for a touchdown as linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (43) and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (7) look to block against the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

When the regular season kicked off, most credible sportsbooks settled around a +250 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translated to 28.7%. That percentage and moneyline improved to 41.6%, though, after Week 1, when Minnesota crushed the New York Giants.

Now, it resides at -340 (77.2%) after a win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9.

Minnesota can drive the percentage higher on Sunday with a win over the Jaguars, and oddsmakers expect the Vikings to prevail by 6.5.

PlayoffStatus.com = 80.0%

Nov 3, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota tight end Josh Oliver (84) runs after the catch against the Indianapolis Colts in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.

This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.

Power Rankings Guru = 81.8%

Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold (14) looks on during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

This ranking tool defines itself as follows: “Our NFL playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire, ESPN, and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.”

The Jaguars haven’t defeated the Vikings in 2023 years, losing five straight games against Minnesota.

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Vikings Have League’s Biggest Surprise, Says NFL.com

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.