The Vikings Have the 5-Part Super Bowl Formula
The Minnesota Vikings have a 12-2 record through 15 weeks and are seeking homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
The Vikings Have the 5-Part Super Bowl Formula
Three more wins would lock up homefield. Otherwise, Minnesota must hope the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles lose games if the Vikings do, as well.
And as of the last decade or so, most Super Bowl-winning teams own a familiar five-part blueprint. Minnesota has most of it — if that can be believed — right now.
1. Efficient RBs, Often by Committee
Teams with high-paid or elite running backs don’t win Super Bowls anymore. It’s weird.
The bellcow era at RB is over, at least needing them to win Super Bowls, and the teams that continue the trend no longer hoist Lombardis.
This is how it is done if recent history is an indicator. Implement an RB committee, don’t pay expensive tailbacks — and win Super Bowls.
The Vikings’ primary running back, Aaron Jones, is on pace for 1,580 yards from scrimmage, while Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack per DVOA. To win the chip, the rushing attack must improve or avoid regression.
The 2022 and 2023 Vikings did not have this trait.
2. Heavy Production at TE Spot
Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce can attest here.
Recent champions don’t skimp at tight end, and even the Super Bowl runner-ups boast a big-name or productive one.
The Vikings have T.J. Hockenson. He’s missed the season’s first seven games recovering from an ACL tear. But weekly, Hockenson looks stronger and is getting more attention in the offense.
Tight end efficiency shouldn’t be taken for granted amid the quest for a Super Bowl — and Minnesota has it.
3. Sturdy Offensive Line
Even without Christian Darrisaw, the trenches have remained decent. The line’s interior is a bit suspect, and Vikings fans aren’t shy about announcing it.
Still, Minnesota ranks in the league’s top half per offensive line pass protection at No. 13.
4. A Clutch QB in the Postseason
In a Week 12 game at the Chicago Bears, Sam Darnold authored a game-winning drive in overtime. He did the same thing the following week versus the Arizona Cardinals, connecting with Aaron Jones for the go-ahead score that won the game.
In fact, Darnold has not floundered in pressure-cooked situations. Early regular season returns suggest he’ll be able to handle the moment in the playoffs. Stay tuned.
Can you remember a game this season when Darnold shrunk in a big moment? Hasn’t happened.
He ranks 13th in 4th Quarter + Overtime EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric that measures expected wins added. That outpaces C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, and Kyler Murray, among others.
5. A Good — or Hot — Defense
Minnesota ranks third in points allowed, second in EPA/Play, and second in defensive DVOA.
The defense is Super Bowl-caliber, and there’s no other way around it. The group, too, should improve when linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. and cornerback Stephon Gilmore return.
If Minnesota wins its first Super Bowl ever, it will be because Flores’ men locked in for January and February.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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