The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 3
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 3
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
This is the Vikings probability meter after the Week 2 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
DVOA = 68.1%
Last week, DVOA estimated the Vikings at 60.3%.
The Detroit Lions were supposed to win the division heading into Week 1 — that was the forecast for the entire offseason and summer — but Minnesota did itself an enormous favor out of the gate by defeating the Giants and 49ers.
If the Vikings lose on Sunday — they’re not favored to win — this percentage will probably dip into the low 50s.
Of course, Minnesota plays Green Bay next weekend, which should substantially alter these percentages.
Sportsbooks = 53.4%
When the regular season kicked off, most credible sportsbooks settled around a +250 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translated to 28.7%. That percentage and moneyline improved to 41.6%, however, after Week 1, when Minnesota spanked the New York Giants.
Now, it resides at -115 following the win over San Francisco.
Minnesota can drive the percentage even higher on Sunday in a home game against the Houston Texans, although oddsmakers believe DeMeco Ryans’ club will win by about two points.
PlayoffStatus.com = 70.0%
This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.
Power Rankings Guru = 51.0%
This ranking tool defines itself as follows: “Our NFL playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire, ESPN, and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.”
Hosting the Texans this weekend, Houston has strangely lost every contest in series history against Minnesota. Houston came into existence in 2002 and has never solved the Vikings. They’ve lost five times.
Texans running back Joe Mixon is doubtful to play on Sunday, while Jordan Addison, Dallas Turner, and Ivan Pace Jr. from the Vikings will be sidelined due to injury.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment.