The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
This is the Vikings probability meter after the Week 1 win over the New York Giants.
DVOA = 60.3%
The Detroit Lions are supposed to win the division — that’s nothing new per offseason forecasts — but Minnesota did itself an enormous favor out of the gate by defeating the Giants. It also helped per this metric that it won so handily.
If the Vikings lose on Sunday — they’re not favored to win — this percentage will probably dip into the 40s.
Vikings fans will enjoy seeing the Packers in the basement, if only for a while.
Sportsbooks = 41.6%
When the regular season kicked off, most credible sportsbooks settled around a +250 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translated to 28.7%. That percentage and moneyline improved, however, after Week 1, when Minnesota spanked the New York Giants.
After the Week 1 win, the moneyline changed to +140 or 41.6%. That’s what happens when a team looks as impressive as the Vikings to start the season, hitting on all offensive and defensive cylinders. The win-total over-under also climbed from 6.5 wins to 7.5.
Minnesota can drive the percentage even higher on Sunday in a home game against the San Francisco 49ers, although oddsmakers believe Kyle Shanahan’s club will win by five or six points.
PlayoffStatus.com = 59.0%
This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.
Power Rankings Guru = 41.1%
This ranking tool defines itself as follows: “Our NFL playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire, ESPN, and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.”
Hosting the 49ers this weekend, San Francisco has strangely lost seven consecutive contests in the state of Minnesota. The Metrodome was not kind to the 49ers in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. Neither is U.S. Bank Stadium currently.
Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey was placed on the 49ers’ injured reserve on Friday and won’t play this weekend.
Vikings Clear Even More Cap Space
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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