The 5 Most Likely Outcomes of the Vikings’ Season
The Minnesota Vikings, with a 13-2 record, will undertake postseason adventures in about two weeks.
The 5 Most Likely Outcomes of the Vikings’ Season
The next chapter is to determine if Minnesota enters the dance as a Wildcard team or division champion. The Vikings can clinch homefield advantage throughout the postseason if it wins the next two games (vs. Green Bay Packers, at Detroit Lions).
And with the playoffs around the bend, fans wonder how this special season will end. Well, these are the five likeliest outcomes, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = most likely)
5. Win the Super Bowl
There’s a chance this is it, folks.
It’s a slim chance, but it’s real until it’s not. Minnesota could win the Super Bowl in the “Sam Darnold season,” against all odds when nobody expected it. In fact, that sounds pretty Vikings-like, doesn’t it?
The odds don’t favor it — the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs are supposed to reach the Super Bowl — but the Vikings have a puncher’s chance.
The Odds per DVOA: 3.9%
4. Lose in the Super Bowl
Here, Minnesota will tunnel all the way to February, match up against a team like the Kanas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, or Baltimore Ravens, and sadly lose its fifth Super Bowl.
While this option would be disappointing, most folks under the age of 53 or so cannot remember or haven’t seen Minnesota in the Super Bowl. They last reached the big game since the 1976 season.
The Odds per DVOA: 9.8%
3. A Playoff One-and-Done
The most heartbreaking option, Minnesota’s at-least-13-wins-record would be an for nil. Two years ago, Kevin O’Connell and Co. won 13 games and immediately lost at home to a New York Giants team that wasn’t very good.
With this situation, Minnesota would probably lose in the Wildcard Round at Tampa Bay or at Los Angeles.
The Odds per DVOA: Not Yet Quantifiable
2. Lose in the NFC Championship
The Vikings would either knock off a division-winning team on the road or earn a 1st-Round bye. Then, a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles or Detroit Lions on the road — probably the Eagles based on current seeding — would exhilarate fans.
But on Conference Championship weekend, Minnesota would fall to the Eagles or Lions.
Fans would be sad the day-of but would quickly realize the season was a pleasant surprise, generally speaking.
The Odds per DVOA: 23.6%
1. Win One Playoff Game, Lose in Divisional Round
Based on Minnesota’s performance to date, statistically and to the eye test, winning a playoff game and then falling at the feet of the mighty Eagles or Lions seems like the most likely outcome.
The Vikings are balanced and productive enough to defeat the Buccaneers, Rams, or Falcons, but the Eagles and Lions are different beasts.
Losing in the Divisional Round feels like the likeliest outcome, with the playoffs two weeks away. But stranger things have happened than a 13-4, 14-3, or 15-2 team getting further.
The Odds per DVOA: Not Yet Quantifiable
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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