Aug 16, 2013; Orchard Park, NY, USA; A general view a Minnesota Vikings helmet during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Bills beat the Vikings 20-16. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports.
Twelve weeks of the Minnesota Vikings’ offseason are in the books, with free agency effectively over and the 2024 NFL Draft 26 days away.
The club has added new free agents, re-signed in-house players, and even delivered a mammoth trade two weeks ago in preparation for the draft, which will feel like a mighty climax. All Vikings fans’ eyes have turned to the draft, and rightfully so. The organization needs a quarterback of the future after Kirk Cousins left for the Atlanta Falcons 2.5 weeks ago.
So, with the NFL draft less than four weeks away, these are the three worst-case scenarios for the Vikings early in the draft. They’re ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = worst outcome).
In 2021, it was Kellen Mond. Two years later, Jaren Hall got the call.
It likely won’t happen, but there’s a teensy chance that the Vikings don’t select a rookie quarterback in Rounds 1 or 2 and instead wait until the middle rounds on a man like Jordan Travis (Florida State), Spencer Rattler (South Carolina), Michael Pratt (Tulane), or Joe Milton (Tennessee).
This strategy works for some teams — the Seattle Seahawks in 2012, the Washington Commanders in 2012, and the Dallas Cowboys in 2016 — but not the Vikings. Like everything on this list, a mid-round quarterback as the fix would inspire groans from fans.
There could be a small fraction of Vikings fans who believe Nix will be productive in the NFL, but they’re not very vocal.
The NFL will likely feature six quarterbacks off the draft board by the end of Round 2, and per historical norms, half or more are guaranteed to underperform their draft scouting report. Nix feels almost certain to join the naughty group.
Perhaps with Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage, he could thrive as a pro. But out of the Big Six — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr, and Nix — the Oregon alumnus is the guy most Vikings fans want to avoid.
Spending the 11th pick on Nix would feel like a Ponderesque reach.
The strikeout.
If the Vikings draft no quarterback in April, a signal would be loud and clear that the club loves Sam Darnold, and fans would look around at the surroundings of their nearest time machine — a throwback to the 1990s when Minnesota used to acquire big-name veteran passers of whom they hoped to squeeze the best out of. Warren Moon, Jeff George, Randall Cunningham, and even Donovan McNabb have stories.
Imagine all the build-up around “Which quarterback will they draft?” followed by a nothingburger. This is the worst-case scenario: a true Cousins-into-Darnold mentality, with no quarterback of the future identified and drafted.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.