Sam Darnold on Unholy Statistical Pace

Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.

If the NFL season ended on September 23rd, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold would win MVP, and there’s just no other way around it.

Sam Darnold on Unholy Statistical Pace

The veteran signal-caller, who appears en route to fully effectuating a reclamation season, leads the NFL in touchdown passes and ranks sixth per quarterback EPA+CPOE.

sam darnold
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

His team is also undefeated at 3-0, and all things Vikings operations are humming through three games. But to appreciate Darnold’s sudden majesty, one must glance at his statistical pace in 2024. They’re rather unbelievable.

Scaled to a full 17-game season, Darnold is on pace for this 2024 stat line:

  • 3,723 Passing Yards
  • 45 TD Passes
  • 11 INTs
John Jones-Imagn Images.

Of course, the main concern about Darnold — if any — is sustainability. That is — how long can he maintain this newfound stardom? He’s never achieved such consistency in the past. Vikings fans watched last year as journeyman passer Joshua Dobbs set the world on fire for two games and then turned into a pumpkin. Some fear that Darnold could follow suit.

The only difference? Darnold is a third-overall-pick draft talent. Dobbs’ arm talent never remotely compared to Darnold’s, not even in the same arena. And Darnold has been beset by awful NFL geography, possibly needing a system like the Vikings’ and the support of a coach like Kevin O’Connell. Darnold’s production may indeed be sustainable.

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There’s also the element of his brief knee injury Sunday. Former Vikings outside linebacker Danielle Hunter, who plays for the Houston Texans, rolled into Darnold’s leg on Sunday during his team’s 34-7 loss to Minnesota, sidelining Darnold for a play and generating early-week suspense about his short- and long-term status.

Darnold will have an MRI on Monday to determine the severity of the injury, if any. Late Sunday afternoon, he mentioned about his knee, “It’s good, and that’s as much as I’m gonna say about that.”

John Jones-Imagn Images.

If Darnold were seriously injured, the franchise would pivot to Nick Mullens at QB1, with Brett Rypien at QB2. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would also likely explore the free-agent and trade market for another contingency plan.

However, if Darnold’s MRI is clean — it probably will be, as the Vikings’ medical staff wouldn’t have let him return immediately to the game if something was wacky — his ceiling is MVP-caliber. The numbers through three games are not accidental or lucky.

All those theories about his “Baker Mayfield-like season” don’t seem so zany now. A 45-touchdown pace is remarkable.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL. 

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.