Sep 8, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) warms up before the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images.
They won’t be able to afford Sam Darnold in 2025. That’s the latest and greatest theory from Pioneer Press.
Until Sunday, Darnold has valiantly led the Minnesota Vikings to a favorable playoff position, sitting with a 7-2 record through 10 games. Of course, Darnold didn’t play well in Week 10, delivering 3 interceptions to zero touchdowns en route to Minnesota’s 12-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But before that outing, Pioneer Press’ Charley Walters wrote that 2025 and beyond would be the J.J. McCarthy era in Minnesota, with Darnold likely hitting free agency and joining a new club for $40 million per year. At that price point, the Vikings would say, “See ya.”
Walters explained, “Sam Darnold has guided the Vikings to an improbable 6-2 start. But the way it looks now, the Vikings’ quarterback next season will be rookie J.J. McCarthy, not Darnold. That’s because, if the Vikings get to the postseason and do well.”
“Darnold, just 27, as a free agent could cost nearly $40 million a year on a new contract. McCarthy, 21, although unproven and out for the season due to knee surgery, is in the first year of a $21.85 million, four-year contract.”
Minnesota drafted McCarthy 6.5 months ago as its quarterback of the future, with Darnold in the house via free agency as a patchover or bridge quarterback. Then, in September, Darnold took the helm as QB1 because McCarthy hurt his meniscus and was sidelined for his rookie season. Darnold mostly played wonderfully and currently ranks 11th in the NFL per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added.
Walters added, “For the Vikings to even consider a mega-deal for Darnold, it’s likely he would have to take them to the NFC championship game or even the Super Bowl. The Vikings this year already have extended sizable contracts to Justin Jefferson ($140 million) and Christian Darrisaw ($113 million), and last year to T.J. Hockenson ($69 million).”
Most onlookers don’t believe Minnesota will sprint to the NFC title game or Super Bowl, but if so, yes, the club would have a real humdinger decision at quarterback — roll with Darnold for another year or stick to the organic McCarthy plan?
Thankfully, this is a good problem. The Vikings might have “too many” startable QB1s. Some teams have zero. The Las Vegas Raiders can tell you all about it.
On the whole, there is a school of thought suggesting the Vikings would re-up with Darnold if they reached The Promised Land or were close to it. But the safer bet is to understand that the McCarthy era in Minneapolis is afoot.
Walters is correct in assuming that Minnesota would be foolish to hand Darnold $40 million per year when McCarthy is waiting for the baton.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.