REAL Stat Makes the Case for Vikings in Super Bowl
Wipe that smile off your face — the numbers aren’t lying.
Sweet Stat Makes the Case for Vikings in Super Bowl
NFL teams that lead consistently throughout games, like the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, win Super Bowls. Plain and simple. The numbers are not cherry-picked, massaged, or made up.
Thanks to ESPN’s Field Yates, a statistic dribbled out of Week 5 vivifying the Vikings’ genuine chances of reaching the Super Bowl and perhaps winning the damn thing — after 58 unsuccessful attempts since 1966.
Here’s the Yates tweet:
Some decry stats as telling stories of the beholder, but this one is ironclad. Teams that dominate games — don’t trail through the first five games of the season — reach The Promised Land. Via the previous four examples, it’s borderline scientific.
Minnesota’s offense sputtered on Sunday when the purple team defeated Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets in London, but that’s the Jets’ defense’s modus operandi. The Vikings’ offense was supposed to struggle against New York’s defense. That’s how they’re constructed.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has a championship defense on its hands through Week 5. The case is open and shut. Heading into Week 6, a bye for Minnesota, Brian Flores’ defense ranks first in the NFL per DVOA and EPA/Play through five games. The group is that good.
The quarterback, too, is doing his part. Darnold ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes exiting Week 5 and 10th per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added, notably outpacing signal-callers like Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. The rub on him will be sustainability and how he bounces back from a blah performance in London, but generally speaking, Darnold can probably guide this club to a deep postseason run.
Overall, this is the NFL’s current pecking order per Super Bowl odds:
- Kansas City Chiefs: +500
- San Francisco 49ers: +700
- Baltimore Ravens: +7500
- Houston Texans: +1100
- Buffalo Bills: +1100
- Detroit Lions: +1100
- Minnesota Vikings: +1200
- Philadelphia Eagles: +1500
- Green Bay Packers: +2500
- Dallas Cowboys: +2500
- New York Jets: +2800
- Atlanta Falcons: +2800
The Vikings are the seventh-likeliest team to take home the chip in 2024. Minnesota hosts Detroit on October 20th at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Probably because Minnesota was assigned a 6.5-win forecast back in the summer, some fans may have difficulty envisioning the current squad for a Super Bowl.
However, the “least amount of time trailing” stat from Yates should be an eye-opener. The Vikings are quietly dominant.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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