Pundits Line Up with Future Vikings QB Predictions

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

The Minnesota Vikings have an 11-2 record on the brink of Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears, a marvelous so-far outcome in a season when the franchise was expected to win six or seven games, according to sportsbooks.

Pundits Line Up with Future Vikings QB Predictions

Quarterback Sam Darnold is playing so well that some have wondered “what the Vikings will do with him” when the 2025 offseason arrives. Minnesota drafted Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy eight months ago as the quarterback of the future, but McCarthy’s maiden voyage season fell on harsh times in August after a meniscus tear. He hit injured reserved, canceling his rookie year.

Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.

So, almost naturally, because Darnold has balled out — he’s on pace for roughly 4,300 passing yards, 38 total touchdowns, and 13 interceptions — a budding “Darnold or McCarthy” debate has emerged for 2025 and beyond.

And according to some prominent pundits and unnamed executives, the choice is clear: Minnesota will hand the QB1 baton to McCarthy while letting Darnold venture to a new team via free agency. The Athletic‘s Jeff Howe opined last week.

vikings
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

“I think Darnold will get something in the middle of Kirk Cousins’ four-year, $180 million deal and Baker Mayfield’s three-year, $100 million pact. It would help his case if Sean McVay disciples Zac Robinson or Liam Coen got head-coaching jobs, considering Darnold’s success with Kevin O’Connell,” he wrote.

“While I think there’s a valid argument for keeping Darnold and the team’s championship aspirations intact, it wouldn’t be terrific asset management to bury McCarthy for another couple of years. I also think O’Connell has done more than enough with his quarterbacks to believe there will be a smooth transition with McCarthy next season.”

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Soon after, Mike Sando, also from The Athletic, sought an anonymous executive for thoughts on Darnold or McCarthy. “McCarthy is their guy. The talking heads think they are crazy to let Darnold go, but they don’t have the same conviction on McCarthy as the Vikings do,” the executive revealed.

Too, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell opined a week ago: “And while it is thriving with Darnold under center, the defense has been the driving force for its victories, as the Vikings rank second in EPA per play on defense. They’re 13th on offense. Would Adofo-Mensah prefer to stick with a low-cost solution at quarterback and invest to keep that defense playing at a high level? My guess is yes, but this puts the Vikings in an interesting position, one that could hurt Darnold in the long run. Likely 2025 starter: McCarthy.”

On the whole, this is a good problem for Minnesota — too many good quarterbacks to keep on the budget. In fact, at the moment, Minnesota employs Darnold, McCarthy, Brett Rypien, Daniel Jones, and Nick Mullens. Except for Rypien, all could start in the NFL (at least in a pinch for the latter two).

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

If Minnesota re-upped with Darnold for $40+ million per year — that will be his asking price per his current production — it would be right back in the spot that some fans loathed for six years: paying a good-but-not-great quarterback big money while hoping to outfit the roster around a large quarterback contract.

That’s probably why the decision feels like a no-brainer, at least according to Howe, Sando, and Barnwell, that McCarthy will get the nod, with Darnold taking his newfound QB1 play elsewhere.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL. 

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.