Jeff Diamond’s Jaguars-Vikings Preview
Nothing comes easy in the NFL, but the Vikings’ upcoming three straight road games — 2-7 Jacksonville, 2-6 Tennessee, and 4-4 Chicago — are certainly winnable if the team plays well.
There are always obstacles to overcome in an NFL season, even for playoff-bound teams. For the Vikings, it was bouncing back from losses to the Lions and Rams and a halftime deficit on Sunday night to beat the Colts. And injuries are always a factor to deal with during the long season.
Jeff Diamond’s Jaguars-Vikings Preview
Blake Cashman’s turf toe injury played a significant role in the two losses, as the defense was without its leading tackler and an excellent pass defender. Cashman has been limited in practice this week, but Kevin O’Connell expects him to be back on Sunday against the Jaguars.
Cam Robinson stepped in and played well in his first game as Christian Darrisaw’s replacement at left tackle. He faces his former team on Sunday after last week’s trade.
The Vikings’ other big issue this week is that they will have a new kicker in John Parker Romo (replacing star rookie kicker Will Reichard, who is on IR with a quad injury) and a new long snapper in Jake McQuaide (replacing Pro Bowler Andrew DePaola, who is on IR with a hand injury).
It will be Romo’s first NFL regular-season game, but he kicked successfully in the XFL last year. McQuaide is a 14-year veteran who was a two-time Pro Bowler with the Rams.
In Jacksonville, the big story is whether QB Trevor Lawrence will be able to play with his injured shoulder. He’s been limited in practice this week, and the rumblings are that he may miss this game. Former Patriots starter Mac Jones is the backup, and the Jaguars signed vet C.J. Beathard to be the No. 2 if Lawrence is out (which they wouldn’t have done if Lawrence was a sure thing).
Lawrence has been up and down this season (11 TDs, 6 interceptions, 87.9 passer rating ranks 23rd), and he threw two interceptions (including one that ended the game) in last Sunday’s 28-23 loss at Philadelphia. But the Vikings would surely rather face Jones than Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft who received a $55 million per year extension prior to this season (tied for second richest contract behind Dak Prescott).
Here are my keys to a Vikings victory over the Jaguars:
1. Jump out to a lead: The Vikings moved the ball on offense in the first half against the Colts but couldn’t convert it into points, as opposed to most games this season when the offense has started fast, such as in Green Bay (28-0 second-quarter lead) and at the Rams (TDs on their first two drives).
The Jaguars trailed the Eagles 22-0 last Sunday before rallying. However, they fell behind Green Bay (10-0) and Chicago (21-3) in losses to other NFC North opponents.
2. Mix the run and pass, as the Jaguars are shaky against both: Jacksonville ranks 31st on defense and 31st against the pass. They’re 16th vs. the run but have been lousy in run defense the past two weeks. The Eagles had 237 rushing yards last week, with Saquon Barkley gaining 159 yards (one TD). Josh Jacobs had a 127-yard rushing game two weeks ago as part of Green Bay’s 170 yards on the ground.
This should be a good opportunity for Aaron Jones to top the century mark for the second time this season (102 yards vs. Houston in Week 3). Cam Akers should get plenty of carries, too, after his impressive performance against the Colts (six carries for 46 yards, 7.7 average), especially if the Vikings pull away in the fourth quarter, as it’s a good idea to save the wear and tear on Jones whenever possible.
Running it well will set up the play-action pass game for Sam Darnold, who should have a big day throwing to his outstanding receiving corps led by Justin Jefferson. After seeing the Jaguars’ poor coverage on Tucker Kraft of the Packers two weeks ago on a 67-yard pass play when Kraft was wide open, Hockenson should be targeted often.
3. Protect Darnold better: the Vikings have allowed 26 sacks (8th most). The Jaguars have only 20 sacks to rank 17th, but they have two prolific pass rushers at defensive end in Pro Bowler Josh Hines-Allen (17.5 sacks last season and five so far in 2024) and 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker (10 sacks in 2023 and 6.5 this season). They’ll test the Vikings tackles — Robinson (the ex-Jag who knows them well) and Brian O’Neill (who is having a great season).
Ex-49er Arik Armstead can also be a handful, and the Vikings’ interior linemen are coming off a rough game against the Colts and need to improve this week.
4. Defense take advantage of banged-up Jacksonville offense: Besides Lawrence’s shoulder problem, the Jaguars lost starting receiver Christian Kirk (broken collarbone) two weeks ago, and their star rookie WR Brian Thomas (the leading rookie WR with 595 yards) is dealing with a chest injury that limited him to two catches for 22 yards last week in Phill. WR Gabe Davis has been limited with a shoulder injury, and the top two backs—Tank Bigsby (ankle) and Travis Etienne (hamstring)- were also limited in practice this week.
If Cashman is back, the Vikings should be at full strength on defense, although Ivan Pace missed practice Wednesday with a knee problem and was back on a limited basis on Thursday.
5. Stop the run and pressure Lawrence or Jones: The Vikings held an elite back—Jonathan Taylor—to 48 yards rushing last week. They need to stop the run and get after whoever plays quarterback for the Jaguars.
Walker Little has taken over at left tackle after Robinson’s departure and has not graded out well in his two starts this season. Jonathan Greenard comes off a two-sack game against the Colts, has seven sacks on the season, and should pad his numbers on Sunday in what’s shaping up as a Pro Bowl season for him, as he ranks sixth in the league in sacks and is one of the leaders in pressures.
6. Win the turnover battle: the Vikings are plus 4 (8th-ranked), and the Jaguars are minus 7 (sixth worst). The Vikings lead the NFL in interceptions (13) and are second in takeaways (17). Jacksonville’s five takeaways are the fewest in the league. But the Vikings’ 13 giveaways are fifth most, and Sam Darnold needs to be more careful when throwing downfield after his two bad picks last week on forced balls to Hockenson and Jefferson.
7. New kicker Romo perform well on his field goals, PATs, and kickoffs: It has to worry O’Connell and Special Teams Coach Matt Daniels to trot out a new kicker and snapper in mid-season. Romo also needs to get his kickoffs deep in the end zone, as Bigsby has a 34.2-yard return average.
Ryan Wright has to hit his punts high and to the sidelines as the punt coverage unit faces an excellent returner in Parker Washington (24-yard average and a 96-yard return for a TD against the Patriots, which was a big play in the Jaguars’ win).
Jags Kicker Cam Little is having a good season — 13 of 14 on field goals and 18 of 18 on extra points.
8. Have fewer penalties than the Jaguars: The Vikings were much better last week with only three penalties after struggling in this area against the Rams, with nine penalties, including five on the defense on third down to extend drives. There were no pre-snap penalties vs. the Colts, which was a big improvement. That needs to continue, especially on the road, although the crowd in Jacksonville isn’t as loud as many venues, especially if the Vikings get an early lead.
Prediction:
The 6-2 Vikings need to win to stay close to 7-1 Detroit and ahead of 6-3 Green Bay (on their bye). I think the Vikings’ offense will have a big game against one of the league’s worst defenses, which will set up the defense to force several turnovers against either Lawrence or Jones.
I predict the Vikings will win 31-17.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 9:
1. In the NFC North, the Lions are at the Texans in a battle of division leaders. Detroit is rolling with six straight wins and wants to stay on track for the NFC’s top seed and keep the Vikings and Packers at bay. Houston comes off an ugly loss at the Jets and is struggling to protect C.J. Stroud (eight sacks last week). Detroit is the better team and should win.
The Bears have not played well in losing their last two games at Washington and Arizona to sit at 4-4. They should handle 2-7 New England at Soldier Field as long as they’re not looking ahead to a rough next three weeks of divisional games against the Packers and Vikings in Chicago and then the Lions on Thanksgiving in Detroit.
2. Pittsburgh at Washington is another matchup of division leaders. I like Jayden Daniels and the Commanders to win at home, but it will be a close game against a Steelers team with a top-10 defense and quarterback Russell Wilson, who seems to be getting better each week.
3. Dak Prescott is on IR as 3-5 Dallas hosts 6-2 Philadelphia. Cooper Rush gets the start, and Vikings fans will recall Rush winning in Minnesota a few years ago. It won’t happen against the Eagles in what is likely the Cowboys’ last stand in 2024. They’ve lost three in a row and are a mess, while the Eagles have won four straight and will make it five on Sunday.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl.
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