Historical Math for Vikings at 5-0

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·October 10, 2024
Nov 2003; Unknown Location, USA; FILE PHOTO; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper (11) on the sidelines during the 2003 season. Mandatory Credit: Peter Brouillet-USA TODAY NETWORK.

Nov 2003; Unknown Location, USA; FILE PHOTO; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper (11) on the sidelines during the 2003 season. Mandatory Credit: Peter Brouillet-USA TODAY NETWORK.

Through five games, the Minnesota Vikings have the seventh-best odds to win Super Bowl LIX and a 5-0 record, notably surpassing the Philadelphia Eagles’ odds last weekend after toppling the New York Jets in London.

Historical Math for Vikings at 5-0

Minnesota is no stranger to starting a season 5-0, accomplishing the feat five times since 1990.

But historically, this is how teams have fared since 1990 when starting 5-0. The year 1990 was used because that’s when the NFL began allowing Wildcard teams.

This is the math.

52% Lose in Playoffs before Super Bowl

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) celebrates a touchdown catch with wide receiver A.J. Green (18) against the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter in Glendale on Sept. 19, 2021. © Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK.

Most 5-0 teams reach the postseason — 91% reach the tournament — but lose before qualifying for the Super Bowl. The most recent examples:

If you’re a student of Vikings history, this could be the most likely outcome. Get there — but lose before the big game.

37% Reached the Super Bowl

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan walks off the field after losing Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports.

Twenty-one percent reached the Super Bowl — and lost.

Beginning a season 5-0 and later losing the Super Bowl is quite popular recently. The last six examples:

And because the Kansas City Chiefs seem hellbent on more dynastic activity, maybe this is Minnesota’s fate in 2024.

15% Won Super Bowl

Sep 27, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) talks to head coach Gary Kubiak (R) during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports.

Strangely, the last team to start 5-0 and win the Super Bowl was the 2015 Denver Broncos, led by a tandem at quarterback of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.

Before that, the 2009 New Orleans Saints — Vikings fans know and loath that team — won the chip following a 5-0 start. The 2006 Indianapolis Colts and 2004 New England Patriots got the job done during this millennium.

In the 21st Century, if a team wishes to start 5-0, it evidently needs or needed a Manning, Brees, or Brady to win it all.

10% Missed Playoffs Altogether

Oct 9, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (84) celebrates his touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Texans 31-13. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The naughty category indeed, the Vikings inhabited this group twice — in 2003 (started 6-0) and 2016 (started 5-0). If you want to know why a Vikings fan might be hesitant to endorse this current spurt with a loud throat, it’s because of the 2003 and 2016 teams.

In fact, Minnesota was the last franchise to start a season with a 5-0 record and totally miss the postseason. The 2015 Atlanta Falcons also did it but reached the Super Bowl a year later before another famous collapse.

These are the non-playoff 5-0 teams of the last 34 years:

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Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL. 

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.

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