Here’s the Vikings’ Math for Homefield Advantage
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
Here’s the Vikings’ Math for Homefield Advantage
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 16 win at the Seattle Seahawks. All playoff math for this version is provided by DVOA.
Miss Playoffs Altogether:
Impossible
The Vikings have clinched a playoff spot that cannot be removed, no matter what.
As a very worst-case scenario, Minnesota would bounce into the postseason as the No. 6 seed, assuming it lost its next two games and the Green Bay Packers won out.
Win NFC North, But Not No. 1 Seed:
7.4%
In this scenario, Minnesota would catch the Lions from behind for the NFC North crown, but the Philadelphia Eagles would finish the season with the same record (or better) as Minnesota and take the No. 1 seed.
It would basically go like this: a Vikings loss to the Packers on Sunday | a 49ers win over the Lions on Monday Night Football | the Eagles win their final two games | the Vikings beat the Lions in Week 18.
Oddsmakers don’t don’t really believe the Vikings can catch up to the Lions, resulting in the No. 2 seed.
Clinch Homefield Advantage Throughout (No. 1 Seed):
16.1%
This is the Holy Grail plan.
Enter Week 18 with the same record as the Lions or one game better in the standings. Beat the Lions. Earn homefield advantage throughout.
If one assumes Minnesota can win its remaining two games, the purple team will earn homefield advantage throughout the postseason tournament. It’s right there in front of them, with “control your own destiny” stakes.
Earn the No. 6 Seed:
36.4%
Here, Minnesota would likely lose at home versus the Packers, again next weekend, while Green Bay beats the Bears in Week 18.
The cheese team would leapfrog Minnesota, seizing the No. 5 seed. Minnesota would likely play the Los Angeles Rams in Round 1 of the postseason at SoFi Stadium.
Earn No. 5 Seed:
40.1%
Minnesota has a two-game cushion on the Packers through 16 weeks, and if that lead remains, the fifth-seeded Vikings are coming to a playoff bracket near you.
If one assumes Minnesota will lose one of its final two games, this is the most logical landing spot for Kevin O’Connell’s team. If it loses both, the sixth seed is the probable verdict.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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