Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) stiff arms Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III (24) in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.
The Minnesota Vikings defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16 and hope to chip off the Green Bay Packers at home in Week 17.
Kevin O’Connell’s team has a 13-2 record, clinching a playoff trip in Week 15, and now hopes to win two more games for homefield advantage throughout the postseason.
And because of Week 16 dealings, the team’s most probable playoff opponent in Round 1 changed. So, these are the Vikings’ likeliest playoff opponents in the Wildcard Round, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = most likely Round 1 playoff opponent).
The Seahawks’ playoff hopes are dangling by a thread — thanks to the Vikings’ 27-24 dub last weekend — and they need the Los Angeles Rams to start losing for a ticket to the postseason.
Seattle is mostly included on this list because they cannot be fully ruled out. But for context, it has just an 11% probability of winning the NFC West and joining the playoff tournament.
Listen, if the Vikings beat the Packers at home this weekend at the Lions on the road in 12 days, well, they will have no 1st-Round opponents.
Minnesota would enjoy homefield advantage henceforth in January, so that verdict is all up to them.
Win two games — earn every eligible playoff game at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Weighing the Falcons’ postseason plans felt good before the losing skid that ushered Kirk Cousins’ trip to the bench. Then, Michael Penix Jr. took over, the defense oddly awoke, and the Falcons beat the New York Giants last weekend while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers curiously lost to the Dallas Cowboys.
Atlanta is right back in it, and in fact, is temporarily on top of the NFC South.
Here’s Atlanta’s remaining schedule:
If it wins both, and the Vikings end up with the fifth seed, it’s Minnesota versus Michael Penix Jr. in the Wildcard Round.
The Rams lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 37-20 on November 24th just before Thanksgiving, and then that was it.
They stopped losing.
Los Angeles has won four straight, now firmly positioned to win the NFC West.
If Minnesota loses its next two games, the purple team will probably play the would-be three-seed Rams at SoFi Stadium in 2.5 weeks.
This is the Buccaneers’ remaining schedule:
If they win both of those games — they should — while the Falcons lose at the Washington Commanders this week and the Vikings lose one more regular season game, it would be Vikings at Buccaneers in the Wildcard Round.
By the math, this is the likeliest scenario as of Christmas Eve.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.