Dustin Baker’s Win-Loss Prediction for 2024 Vikings
Sportsbooks predict the Minnesota Vikings will win between six and seven games in 2024, a mark that has remained steady since free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft.
Dustin Baker’s Win-Loss Prediction for 2024 Vikings
Sam Darnold will lead the team at quarterback after rookie passer J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus on August 10th. McCarthy will miss all of his rookie campaign.
Coming off an unwhelming 2023 season undone by an injury to then-quarterback Kirk Cousins, let’s prognosticate the 2024 Vikings.
The Pick: 7-10
Sportsbooks label Minnesota for six or seven wins, and they don’t feel like they’re off the rocker. The NFC North is suddenly brutal for competition — there are no bad teams like in years past — and the Vikings have one of the league’s toughest schedules.
However, all iterations of Vikings teams in the last decade have found a way to be competitive — no matter what — and that will carry over to 2024. The first portion of the schedule (basically September and October) is really nasty, but after that slate, the Vikings will reel off some wins and flirt with postseason contention heading into December.
In the end, much like last year, the team won’t overcome adversaries like the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, and folks will look back at the schedule’s beginning to blame a losing record.
Seven wins and ten losses, it is.
Why This Will Be Right
Minnesota will start the season 3-5 or 2-6 before catching fire in November. By that time, however, it will be too late to morph into a contender, even if the schedule lightens up.
Like last year, turnovers will remain a problem, but not to the tune of second-most in the NFL. Let’s face it: the Vikings are coming off a season when they desperately need to fix an interceptions + fumbles problem … and they signed a quarterback whose only undoing in his career — is interceptions + fumbles
How This Could Go Wrong
A forecast of 7-10 could be misguided because Darnold actually arrives in Minneapolis with guns blazing like Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last year. If he can post a statline similar to Kirk Cousins’ seasons in Minnesota, well, the purple team can flip the 7-10 into 10-7.
Onlookers to Vikings football already believe the defense will be pretty formidable. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores transformed the league’s 24th-ranked defense per DVOA in 2023 to 11th-best in one season. He can boost the unit into the Top 10 this season.
The other caveat is the season’s first two months. Should the Vikings escape the first 6-8 games with a record close to .500 — and not 3-5 or 2-6 — opponent difficulty softens in November.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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